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  • UNIT 8 UNEMPLOYMENT

    Key Unit competence: Analyze the impact of unemployment on economic development.

    INTRODUCTORY ACTIVITY

    When you move in the streets of Kigali/or the cities in Rwanda:

    - What do you normally observe people doing?

    - What do young women and men normally carry on those streets?

    - How can the puzzle of people carrying files looking for job be solved?

    - Many young people graduate with high hopes of getting a job, do they really get the job?

    - What do you think are causes of not getting the job they want?

    8.1. Introduction to unemployment

    On any given day, during economic busts and economic booms alike, many people are unable to find desirable employment despite their best efforts to look for employment. Understanding the reasons for this fact is a primary concern for economists and policymakers, since it is necessary for designing good labor market policies. Unemployment not only creates hardships for those it encompasses, but it also seems to represent a vast pool of idle economic resources.

    Unemployment is one of the economic problems facing countries and their governments.

    ACTIVITY 8.1

    Visit a nearby firm/industry/hotel/restaurant/trading Centre/market/

    construction company and ask some of the young people in those areas

    who are looking for jobs, the nature and kind of jobs they are looking

    for. What do you notice? Are all those people willing to take any kind of

    the job at any given wage? Why do you think some are selective in taking

    the job

    s

    8.1.1. Meaning and Nature of unemployment (voluntary and involuntary )

    Unemployment is an economic condition where resources (labour) lies idle and is not doing any work irrespective of the ability and willingness to do work. All resources (factors of production) can be unemployed. However, unemployment is usually used with labour force. It is used with the active population and does not consider the sick, the very old, fulltime students etc.

    Classical economists believed that unemployment was a result of excess supply of labour at high wages. High wages reduce the demand for labour. The difference between labour supply and labour demand causes unemployment. A reduction in wages will enable employers to absorb the excess labour and drive the economy towards full employment.

    Keynesian economists however explain unemployment from demand side. A deficiency in demand for goods and services leads to unemployment. Demand for labour is derived demand and rises out of demand for goods and services that labour helps to produce.

    d

    8.1.2: Nature of unemployment:

    Keynesian economists divide unemployment into many different categories. The two broadest categories of unemployment are voluntary and involuntary unemployment.

    a. Voluntary unemployment

    This refers to the situation where jobs are available but people are not willing to work at the ongoing wage rate.

    Causes of voluntary unemployment

    - Presence of low wages: The low wages may not attract the labour to work even if the job is available.

    - Desire to live on personal or family wealth: Sometimes labour may live on already accumulated wealth that may be personal or for the family. So even if the jobs are available, the labour may not prefer to work.

    - Presence of target workers: These are people who work for a specific period of time because they want to achieve a certain target. After achieving their target, they may not go back to work even if the jobs are available.

    - Poor working conditions: Sometimes workers prefer to work in luxuries or good working conditions so when the conditions of work are poor, they may not work even if the jobs are available.

    - Too much desire for leisure: Some people prefer to enjoy leisure to work since it is part of welfare. Those who prefer leisure may not work even when the jobs are available. To them the opportunity cost for leisure is work.

    - Unfavourable geographical conditions: Some jobs are located in remote areas which may not be accessed by road because of the relief. Workers may not be willing to work in areas that are not accessible even if the there are jobs.

    - High risks involved in doing the jobs: Some jobs are risky for the workers. For example jobs like mining, digging pit latrines, fishing among others. Some of these may be risky since they may involve death in case of accidents. So even if there are wages being offered, labour may not work.

    - Early retirement by an individual: Different countries have different retirement ages, for example in Rwanda the current retirement age is 55 years while the normal retirement age is 65 years. If the people have reached the retirement age, they may not be legible to work even if the jobs are available.

    b. Involuntary unemployment

    This is a situation where members of the labour force are idle but are willing to work in the existing situations at the current wage. Individuals want to work but there is no employment.

    Business cycles and growth are directly related to unemployment in any given country’s economy. When an economy is growing, unemployment usually falls and; when an economy is in a downturn, unemployment usually rises. The causes of involuntary unemployment are the causes of unemployment in general.

    8.1.3. Types and Causes of unemployment

    There are many different possible causes of unemployment, though it is never easy for policy makers to identify which is the most important and what to do about it. The causes of unemployment can be split into two main types:

    a. Demand-side

    The first cause of unemployment (demand-side) is simply a lack of aggregate Demand. When there is not enough demand, employers will not need as many workers, and so demand-deficient unemployment results. Keynesian economists in particular focus on this cause.

    b. Supply-side

    Unemployment caused by supply-side factors results from imperfections in the labour market. A perfect labour market will always clear and all those looking for work will be working—supply will equal demand. However, if the market does not clear properly, there may be unemployment. This may happen because wages do not fall properly to clear the market. These two types can further be divided into different categories as shown below;

    i. Open urban unemployment

    This is when the members of the labour force are unemployed in the urban areas—both voluntary and involuntary. Open urban unemployment can best be explained by the theory of rural-urban migration. Rural-urban migration is a process whereby individuals move from rural to urban areas. It occurs as a result of a combination of push and pull factors.

    Rural-urban migration is brought about by push and pull factors (from towns), which are both economic and non-economic. Some of them are; unequal distribution of resources and services, social problems and population pressure among others. This can be basically reduced or controlled by developing rural areas such that people are no longer attracted to urban areas since all the services are equally distributed.

    ii. Seasonal unemployment

    Seasonal unemployment is unemployment which is caused by economic slowdowns related to seasonal variations. Certain jobs, like fruit packing, may be seasonal. At the end of the season, the workers may become unemployed. Agricultural workers are employed during clearing, planting, weeding and harvesting periods but are unemployed for the rest of the year. Others are construction workers, people who fish for a living.

    This kind of unemployment can be solved by:

    - Offer employees yearly contracts to avoid lay off of workers;

    - Diversify agriculture sector to allow the full employment opportunities

    throught the year;

    - Set up a comprehensive industrial program to provide part-time employment.

    iii. Disguised unemployment

    This type of unemployment does exist mainly in countries which are overpopulated. It is the type where labour’s productivity tends to zero. Or the capacity of labour to work is underutilised. E.g. office messengers. The marginal product of labour is either zero or negative. One finds that there are more workers than those that are needed for a particular job. Less labour could have done the same work and therefore labour is said to be underutilised. In some cases, labour works less time than desired due to poor methods of production and poor capital equipment. Disguised unemployment is common in Rwanda, especially in the agricultural sector, service industry and government.

    This kind of unemployment can be solved by:

    - Introduce a comprehensive industrial program to facilitate redudant people;

    - Introduce better methods of production by use of modern tools;

    - Prompt the idle land and make it productive.

    iv. Frictional unemployment

    Frictional unemployment is essentially short-term unemployment. It results when the people are switching from one job to another. This may occur when people constantly change their jobs, some quit or others are fired. These constant changes result in frictional unemployment. There are always some firms with unfilled vacancies and some people looking for work. The period of unemployment between losing one job and finding another is included under frictional unemployment. There are a variety of reasons to explain the existence of frictional unemployment but these can be explained in the two categories below;

    - Normal labour market turnover. This arises from two sources. First, people are constantly changing their economic activities —young people are leaving school and joining the labour force and secondly, old people are retiring and leaving the labour force temporarily for some other reason, and then joining it.

    - The fortunes of businesses are constantly changing—some are

    closing down and laying off their workers; new firms are starting up and are hiring.

    - This kind of unemployment can be solved by:

    - Provide information about job opportunities to available workers.

    Employers should be fully informed of the potential labour supply. Unemployed workers should be informed of the availability of employment opportunities. There should be an efficient system of job notification and placement and there should be job centres in all small townships;

    - The remedy of occupational immobility is to provide retraining facilities so that workers learn new skills. However, the problem could be lessened in the first place if the education system gave the potential workforce more appropriate training. Considering the changes in technology and the growth in demand for skilled and professional workers, retraining program will be of increasing importance in the future;

    - Barriers to geographical labour mobility should be reduced. This should be either moving the unemployed to the jobs or moving the jobs to the unemployed. The government may give moving grants, provide information of jobs in other areas; and set up houses, schools and hospitals in those areas where employment exists. To move firms into the depressed regions, the government may attract them there with grants, tax relief, rent-free factories etc;

    - Human resource planning. Human resource planning should be undertaken so that workers can be guided as to what skills are required by the economy.

    v. Structural/secular unemployment

    ACTIVITY 8.2

    Umucyo company in Nyamagabe has been specialized in making dresses and it has been employing many workers. However with the change in trend, where ladies have resorted to putting on trousers, the company has lost market hence laying off workers.

    1. What do you understand by the terms structural unemployment?

    2. What are the causes of this type of unemployment?

    3. What can be done to reduce this type of unemployment?

    This is unemployment caused by changes in structural set up such as change in demand. For example if there is a change in demand from dresses to trousers, the workers in the dress industry will become unemployed.

    Structural unemployment represents a mismatch between supply of labour and demand for workers. Because the economy is constantly changing and adapting, at any moment there will always be some mismatch between the characteristics of the labour force and the characteristics of the available jobs.

    The mismatch may occur, for example, because labour does not have the skills that are in demand or because labour is not in the part of the country where there is demand. Individuals who fall into this category have trouble finding jobs because of a lack of adequate skills or regional employment problems. This is because of the immobility of labour. There are three distinct reasons for such immobility; occupational, geographical/regional (within a country), and international competition.

    1. Occupational unemployment results from a mismatch between the demand and supply of labour in specific industries. The demand for workers in growing fields such as health care may exceed the supply of available workers, while the supply of labour in declining areas may be in surplus. As a result, there is high unemployment in stagnant or declining job areas, while demand is strong for alternative occupations.

    2. Geographical/regional imbalance  between the supply and demand for labour also occurs geographically, and is known as regional unemployment. For many countries, growth is not uniform across the landscape. Some areas may enjoy rapid growth and thus have a strong demand for labour, while other locations are stagnant and the surplus labour leads to high local unemployment rates. The unemployed workers will not move to a different area due to social ties, housing problems and social problems.

    3. International competition is an additional source of long-term structural unemployment. The argument is that less-skilled workers in developed countries are increasingly being displaced by foreign workers in less-developed countries (LDCs) who are paid significantly lower wages. In developed countries, the average wage for less-skilled workers is relatively high compared to that in LDCs due to greater living costs, union power, and tradition.

    4. Structural unemployment is the most difficult for economic policy makers to deal with, and solutions evolve slowly, and below are some of the solutions:

    - Individuals stuck in occupations that allow for little future growth need to be retrained and educated to gain the skills necessary to work productively in areas where they are needed. Time, information, and money are required to deal with structural unemployment;

    - The government can take an active role in providing vital information about jobs and help in financing education and training for displaced workers;

    - There should be facilities for the retraining of workers whose skills are no longer in demand;

    - It is important to identify in advance where shortages will occur in the future, so that retraining of unemployed workers can be in the right direction. This will enable workers to move to other expanding industries.

    vi. Technological unemployment

    This is the type brought about by machines replacing people because of

    technological advancement.

    s

    Figure 18: Technological unemployment

    As firms introduce new technologies into their production processes, they may replace labour with machines. This has been occurring with computerization, automation and robotics in many industries as seen above in figure 2. For the firm, costs are cut and output and profits raised but for labour the demand is decreased.

    This kind of unemployment can be solved by:

    To cure this type of unemployment is not easy. Either the policy makers stops the technological developments, which would slow down economic growth, or find alternative work for those who have lost their jobs. The main solution would involve retraining.

    vii. Casual/ Erratic unemployment

    x

    Figure 19: Casual Unemployment This is a form of unemployment that results from expiry of contracts and target workers. It commonly occurs to people like private doctors, lawyers, and car washers, who work if they have clients. The private doctor works when he has a patient to attend to. If he has no patients, he becomes unemployed and hence casual unemployment. This type of unemployment is hard to cure because it comes at irregular intervals. It cannot be predicted unlike the seasonal unemployment.

    viii. Residual unemployment

    This is a type of un employment that occurs to a factor of production especially labour because it is mentally or physically handicapped like the lame, with mental health issuers among others. Labour may become unemployed when the work that is available needs someone who is physically and mentally able.

    ix. Transitional unemployment/ Normal unemployment

    This is brought about by production stopping temporarily for sometime. Production may always stop because of many different reasons like repairing due to breakdown, renovation, and painting the industry among others.

    8.1.4. Effects and Solutions to unemployment

    Being unemployed can lead to depression, low self-esteem, anxiety and other mental health issues, especially if an individual truly wants a job but can’t find employment. Tension can occur, causing stress and strain on the body. Below are some of the effects of unemployment:

    1. Increases dependence. Unemployment widens the dependence ratio. The unemployed rely on the working members of the public. This reduces personal savings and investments.

    2. It kills personal esteem and dignity. Unemployed people may be looked at as a disgrace to the society. Employed members of the society under look them. They lose their self esteem and some may even become desperate in their lives.

    3. It changes the attitude of the public towards education and training. The public may take education as wastage of time and resources. This may bring about large numbers of school drop outs. In the long run it may create a society that is dominated by the less educated.

    4. Deterioration of the skills and knowledge of the unemployed. The skills of those who are unemployed will tend to disappear due to lack of practice. In the long run they will find it more difficult to get work in the future. This is what is known as the hysteresis effect.

    5. The volume of production reduces. Unemployment keeps low the total volume of output that is produced. Because some resources are idle, and there is no output produced by them, GDP remains low.

    6. Tax revenue reduces. The unemployed members of the public do not earn any incomes. Their taxable capacity tends towards zero.

    7. Political oppositions may use the vulnerable unemployed especially the youth to lure them into activities that endanger the security of the country. Most anti government activities in developing countries involve the unemployed youth.

    8. Income inequality. The income gap between the employed and the unemployed widens with time. This also creates its own evils.

    9. Increase in government spending. The government incurs a lot of expenses on availing social services to the unemployed members of the public. Government spending on services like education and health facilities increase yet there is no tax revenue accruing to the government from the unemployed members.

    10. Crime rates. The unemployed especially the youth are vulnerable and can easily be taken over by criminal behavior. Prostitution, theft and robberies, and other forms of criminality usually involve unemployed youth.

    8.1.5. Solutions of Unemployment

    1. Applying an expansionary fiscal policy. This involves stimulating aggregate demand, by:

    - Lowering taxes to increase disposable incomes and increase aggregate demand.

    - Increasing government spending to increase money supply which also widens aggregate demand.

    - Increase in aggregate demand stimulates expansion of production and employment of more resources only if there if there is excess capacity in production.

    2. Applying an expansionary monetary policy. This involves using the different instruments of the monetary policy to increase money supply and aggregate demand. For instance.

    - Reducing interest rates to reduce the cost of borrowing. This encourages people to borrow and invest which in turn increases aggregate demand.

    - Buying securities from the public to increase money supply.

    3. Carrying out educational reforms and promoting vocational education. It helps to create relevant skills that suit the demands in the labour market. The creation of WDA , TVET and he introduction of the competence based curriculum is in this direction.

    4. Modernize agriculture. This helps to reduce rural urban migration and therefore checks open urban unemployment. For instance changing the land tenure system to create private ownership builds producer and investor confidence which stimulates agricultural expansion and modernization. The system of land consolidation avails enough land for agricultural expansion. This will increase the rate of employment creation in the agricultural sector.

    5. Reduce the power of trade unions. If trade unions are able to increase wages above the market clearing levels, they will cause real wage

    unemployment. thus reducing the power of trade unions helps to fight this kind if unemployment.

    6. Expand the industrial sector. This widens employment opportunities and helps to absorbs both skilled and unskilled labour force.

    7. Promote local and foreign investors. This helps to increase the rate of job creation in the economy.

    8. Check population growth rates. This helps to match it with the rate of job creation.

    9. Economic integration. It expands markets by giving local producers to access markets in the region. A ready and wider regional market encourages the producers to expand the scale of production thereby creating employment opportunities.

    10. Diversification of the economy. This helps to create different employment opportunities in different sectors. It helps to solves seasonal unemployment.

    11. Increase wages and improvement in working conditions reduces voluntary unemployment.

    12. Provide information about labor markets and jobs. This reduces frictional unemployment. It helps to improve the flexibility in the labour market. For instance making it easier to recruit labour.

    13. Provide free universal education. This helps to increase skills development in the economy.

    14. Encourage private sector. This also increases the rate of employment

    creation in the economy by expanding production.

    APPLICATION ACTIVITY 8.1

    “It is idleness that is the curse of man - not labour. Idleness eats the heart

    out of men as of nations, and consumes them as rust does iron” Samuel

    Smiles, a Scottish author. Justify this statement.

    Assess the causes and effects of unemployment in the Rwandan economy.

    8.2. Under and full employment

    ACTIVITY 8.2

    Visit the library or any other source of information and make research

    on the following items below and present your findings to the class.

    1. Differentiate between full employment and Under employment.

    2. Identify the measures that can be adopted to increase resource

    employment so as to drive the economy towards full employment.

    8.2.1. Meaning of under and full employment

    Full employment has been defined differently by different economists.

    - Lord Maynard Keynes calls it “The absence of involuntary unemployment.”

    - Lord Beveridge defines it as “Having always more vacant jobs than men.”

    However, what is evident is that no economy world over can attain 100% full employment. Some element of unemployment has to exist in one way or another. For instance,

    - There is always involuntary unemployment in any economy.

    - Frictional unemployment has to occur because labourforce keeps changing from one job to another.

    Underemployment occurs when the capacity of a resource (labour) is not fully utilized. The capacity of a unit of labour to perform work is not fully put to use. This lowers the output that it produces.

    8.2.2. Causes of under employment

    Under employment occurs when:

    Nothing is being added to total output by the extra units of labour employed i.e disguised unemployment. This can be illustrated as shown below.

    d

    The above diagram shows that units of labour OL3 and OL4 are disguisedly unemployed because they are not adding anything to total product. Even if units of labour oL3 and oL4 are taken away from the production process, total product remains the same. Their MP is zero.

    - Labour is using poor equipment such that the capacity to produce disrupted by the poor tools e.g using a spoon to load sand on a lorry as illustrated in the activity above. In this illustration, the second man is being unemployed. His strength, skill and will are not being used fully because of using a poor tool. This affects his total output.

    - Labour is working on socially unacceptable activity. There are activities that are unacceptable to the society. For instance, prostitution. Prostitutes earn incomes from the “sale of their services” but their business cannot be taken to employment. More so, most prostitutes enter into that business not by will but are pushed into it by the unbearable conditions like low remuneration, unemployment and poverty.

    - Labour is doing a job it is not trained for. Many workers are employed in fields that they were not trained for. A mechanical technician in a business of selling clothes, a professional teacher working in the local government as sector executive secretary etc.

    - Lack of skills: Underemployment often illustrates the employment of workers with skilled backgrounds in low-wage or hourly jobs that do not require such prerequisites, thus undertaking jobs that undermine their skills.

    - Lack of experience: Recent graduates may find themselves underemployed while looking for their first job after college. Even entry-level jobs sometimes require more experience than students may have to offer right after graduation. Job seekers who find themselves in this position might have to take part-time work while doing additional internships, taking classes, or networking their way to a new position.

    - Credentials aren’t acceptable: In many cases, highly skilled individuals look for work, but face underemployment because their credentials cannot be accepted nor considered to be an equivalent fit for the position in question, so many professional individuals such as doctors, lawyers, or engineers take necessary jobs that would otherwise be seen as inferior positions.

    - Discrimination issues: for example, people with disabilities, mental illnesses, or former inmates are often discriminated against and are forced to take the first job made available to them for fear of not finding another.

    - Low demand: Some individuals with acceptable experience and skills are underemployed because of low demand in their local job market. They have to take a part-time job until they are able to move to a location that can better accommodate their skill set.

    - Poor economy: In addition, anyone can find themselves underemployed if the economy takes a turn for the worse. During a recession, many skilled workers who would ordinarily have little trouble landing a good job in their field may wind up underemployed.

    - Market changes: Underemployment can also be caused by larger market changes. For example, automation has affected workers in industries ranging from retail to manufacturing to transportation and warehousing.

    8.2.3. Measures to attain full employment

    For any economy to flourish towards full employment, it requires a number of policy interventions. The following policies can be applied to attain full employment.

    1. Fiscal policy.

    2. Monetary policy.

    3. Through pump priming policy.

    - Offering tax exemptions and tax holidays to potential investors. This attracts both foreign and domestic investments. Local production expands which increases resource utilization. More employment opportunities are created as production expands.

    - Reduction of tax rates on production and inputs. This reduces the costs of production which stimulates expansion of the scales of production. This increases demand for inputs and widens employment opportunities.

    - Offering subsidies to infant domestic firms. Subsidies to young firms help them to grow and expand their scales of production and employ more resources. Subsidizing consumers also has an effect on demand. Demand increase which stimulates further production and employment of resources.

    - Reducing direct taxes to increase people’s disposable incomes. This helps to stimulate consumption. It offers a ready market to producers who are encouraged to increase their production. Increasing production implies utilizing more resources.

    - Reduction and or removal of export tariffs. This offers producers in the export sector free access to foreign markets and to promote production of exports.

    - Increasing government spending on productive ventures. Government spending on infrastructure like roads, power, water and sanitation and telecommunication sector facilitates domestic production and promotes utilization of the available resources.

    - Use of expansionary monetary policy. This helps to increase money supply to stimulate aggregate demand. It can be done by buying securities from the public, lowering the central bank lending rate, lowering the variable reserve ratio etc. This has an impact of stimulating investmentand production aggregate demand.

    - Liberalising the economy. This helps to improve private sector participation in production activities. Employment creation expands and helps to drive the economy towards full employment.

    8.2.4. Why is it difficult to attain full employment in Rwanda

    In macroeconomic concept, there is no economy that attains full employment due to the following:

    1. Low levels of skills. Because of low levels of education a proportion of labour force which is unskilled cannot be employed irrespective of the expansion in production.

    2. Lack of information on labour markets. When the labour market is imperfect, some units of labour force remain unemployed irrespective of the availability of job vacancies. This makes it difficult to attain full employment in the economy.

    3. Existence of voluntary unemployment. Either because of attitude towards work or the prevailing wage rate some units of labour force may prefer to remain unemployed irrespective of the availability of job opportunities.

    4. Changes in seasons. There are activities that are done on a seasonal basis especially in the agricultural sector. This brings about seasonal unemployment especially in the agricultural sector. Thus it becomes difficult to get resources employed fully in the free season, for instance in the period between harvesting and the next planting season.

    5. Limited markets. Domestic markets are low because the consumers have low incomes. There are obstacles to accessing foreign markets. This keeps production low leaving some resources unemployed.

    6. Political instabilities. Political disagreements, unrest and conflicts disrupt settled life and productive activities. Potential investors are scared away. This reduces the possibility of moving the economy towards full employment

    7. Attitude of the public towards work. if the attitude towards work, especially among the youth, who under look employments, who want to get rich quick, etc, makes it difficult to achieve full employment.

    8. Dependence on primary production. LDCs produce and export unprocessed output. This limits the rate of job creation.

    APPLICATION ACTIVITY 8.2

    Rwanda is determined to create 1,500,000 (over 214,000 annually)

    decent and productive jobs for economic development by 2024

    (MINECOFIN: NST1-7YGP 2018/2024).

    1. Assume you are among the policy makers planning for the GoR,

    what will you do for Rwanda to realize that milestone.

    2. What do you consider as bottlenecks for Rwanda to realize that

    activity.

    8.3. Keynesian theory of unemployment

    ACTIVITY 8.3

    Visit the library or any other source, make research about the following:

    1. The meaning and causes of unemployment according to LM Keynes.

    2. The solutions put forward by Keynes to lessen unemployment.

    3. Critically argue on the relevancy and limitations of Keynesian theory in Rwanda.

    8.3.1. Assumptions and Illustration

    The Keynesian economics argues that economies are boosted when there is a healthy amount of output driven by sufficient amounts of economic expenditures. Keynes believed that unemployment is caused by a lack of expenditures within an economy, which decreased aggregate demand.

    This exists when individuals lose their jobs as a result of a downturn/reduction in aggregate demand (AD) especially during a depression when incomes and output fall which results into employers laying off workers. The demand for most goods and services falls, less production is needed and consequently fewer workers are needed, wages are sticky and do not fall to meet the equilibrium level hence unemployment.

    If the decline in aggregate demand is persistent, and the unemployment longterm, it is called either demand deficient, general, or Keynesian unemployment.

    This type results from fluctuations in the business cycle. Cyclical unemployment rises significantly during economic downturns (recessions) and falls during growth phases. It is therefore natural to refer to the high unemployment, in these recurring periods of recession as cyclical. The term “cyclical” means that such unemployment occurs periodically.

    When there is a fall in aggregate demand, the entrepreneurs will find themselves with unsold goods. They will be forced to reduce investment and consequently lay off workers.

    Keynes stressed two concepts, the marginal propensity to consume (MPC)

    and the investment multiplier. If individuals consume a greater proportion of the additional income, entrepreneurs will be encouraged to increase their investment and hence more employment opportunities. However, if MPC is low, unemployment is bound to occur since the investment multiplier process will be small.

    d

    Figure 20: Keynesian Unemployment

    From Figure 20 above, E1 is the equilibrium point with employment level Y1;

    some of the workers willing to work have not been absorbed. It means that E1

    (effective demand point) is an under employment equilibrium and Y1 is under

    employment level of income.

    The unemployed workers can be absorbed if the aggregate demand increases

    from Agg dd1 to Agg dd2 and a new equilibrium point E2 is established with

    employment level Y2 which we assume is the full employment level. Hence

    increase in aggregate demand from Agg dd1 to Agg dd2 leads to increase in

    employment (Y2-Y1).

    To curb down this type of unemployment according to Keynes, aggregate

    demand should be increased in the following ways:

    1. Increase government expenditure, to increase in the demand and in the end, incomes if the firms will increase and finally may need more workers to producet he needed goods;

    2. Reduce tax on people’s incomes which will lead to more disposable income, and hence an increase in demand that will stimulate the producers to set up more investments and create more employment in turn;

    3. Buy securities from the public. This will lead to increased money in the hands of the public and in end their demand will increase hence the need for increased output will cause the producers to demand for more workers;

    4. Reduce the bank rate. This will attract people to seek for loans from the financial institutions which will further increase money in circulation, increase demand and employers will react by increasing the demand for workers;

    5. Reduce legal reserve requirements. This is the amount that is by law supposed to be kept by commercial banks in the central bank. Reducing implies that there will be enough money held by commercial banks to lend to the public which will further increase aggregate demand;

    6. Encouraging exports. This could be through lowering the tax rates and joining regional cooperation for an extended market. It will increase incomes and investment and in turn create employment opportunities;

    7. Improvement in investment climate. This is through encouraging investors to invest in the country through giving them subsidies like tax holidays, gazetted land in economic zones among others. These investors will in turn create employment opportunities for the people;

    8. Increasing wages of the people so as to increase their demand.

    8.3.2. Applicability and Limitations

    a. The Keynesian theory is relevant in the following ways:

    i. As suggested by Keynes, in LDCs, demand for labour is derived demand. This implies that a fall in demand for goods and services will lead to a fall in incomes of the employers because their products have no market and in the end they will react by laying off workers.

    ii. Through exports, new markets are got for the local goods and this implies that the local investors will earn more income. They will be able to set up more investments in order to satisfy the market and hence they will need to employ more workers.

    iii. Reduction in tax as suggested by Keynes can lead to increase in household income and expenditure. This will in turn increase aggregate demand, the investors will react by needing to produce more to satisfy the increased demand and in the end they will need to hire and employ more workers leading to increased employment opportunities.

    iv. Increasing government expenditure as suggested by Keynes increases money supply in the economy. This will further increase aggregate demand provoking producers to increase production which they can only do after employing more workers.

    v. A conducive investment climate as suggested by Keynes encourages investment through attracting investors. These will in turn need to increase production and in the end they will end up employing more workers.

    b. Limitation Keynesian theory of unemployment

    i. Keynes viewed unemployment from the demand side when he said that unemployment is as a result of reduction in aggregate demand. This cannot be applicable in developing countries because in these countries unemployment is mostly as a result of inadequate capital.

    ii. Increasing government expenditure as suggested by Keynes so as to increase aggregate demand will instead worsen the problem. This is because the increased money in circulation will instead shoot up the prices and it may further be too high for the people to buy hence the goods will lack market and still the employers may lay off the workers which will cause inflation.

    iii. Keynes didn’t consider institutional and structural problems in LDCs such as poor road network, poor land tenure system which affect the level of investment and job creation.

    iv. Increasing government expenditure will not increase employment opportunities especially in the agricultural sector. This is because people prefer white collar jobs than blue collar jobs so there may not be increase in employment despite increase in expenditure by the government.

    v. Assumes a fully monetarised economy. This is because according to him, the aggregate demand can only be increased when there is increase in money in circulation but he does not consider the fact that in LDCs there is a large subsistence sector where people survive on the foods that they grow and they don’t take it to the market to earn incomes.

    vi. Investments in industries may not absorb all the labour. This is because the need to increase output by these industries to gain more profits, may force the industries to use capital intensive techniques of production as opposed to labour intensive techniques and so unemployment may persist

    vii. LDCs have got inelastic demand for imports. Even if the prices increase, their demand remains almost the same. Increase in aggregate demand means that the they will be more investments in those countries that supply the goods and employment will be created there and not in the countries where they export their goods. Thus unemployment will persist in the countries that receive the goods.

    viii. Increasing money supply may not increase aggregate demand. This is because people in developing countries prefer to hold money in form of wealth or cash. Therefore there will still be deficiency in demand and unemployment.

    ix. Keynes didn’t consider the causes and solutions to other types of unemployment. He only considered deficiency in demand yet we know that unemployment is broad with many causes and needs a variety of solutions if full employment is to be achieved.

    APPLICATION ACTIVITY 8.3t

    The Keynes way of thinking has brought to the attention of the most economies in the 20th century. As a student teacher in social studies who may also progress to economics in furthering your studies, how can you influence the economy of your country to pursue the trend of Keynes theory?

    Do you think the theory is still applicable in 21st century given the advancement in technology where demand for goods and services keeps on changing? If yes/no, justify.

    8.4. Theory of Rural Urban Migration

    ACTIVITY 8.4

    Using the photographs in figure below, describe the following:

    1. What do you think caused such situations in the photos below?

    2. The activity of people moving from a rural area to an urban area

    to stay is known as ......

    3. What do you think are the effects of such an activity in (1) above?

    4. What do you think should be done to limit the movement of people

    from rural areas to urban areas with an intention of staying?

    d

    8.4.1. Meaning of Rural Urban Migration

    Rural-urban migration is a process whereby individuals move from rural to urban areas with an intention of staying. It occurs as a result of a combination of push and pull factors. This causes three things to happen;

    - Urban growth - towns and cities are expanding, covering a greater area of land.

    - Urbanization - an increasing proportion of people living in towns and cities.

    - Depopulation in the rural areas because of people constantly moving to urban areas.

    8.4.2. Causes of Rural-Urban Migration

    a. Unequal distribution of economic activities. Unequal distribution of economic activities with urban areas having more than the rural areas. The government tends to allocate more development expenditures in the urban areas and forget the country sides where the majority of the people stay hence individuals have then tended to move to urban areas in hope of getting highly paid jobs.

    b. Unequal distribution of social services. Unequal distribution of social services with urban areas having more than the rural areas. More and better education, medical, cinema halls, night clubs and transport facilities are allocated to urban areas than in the rural areas. Individuals then move to urban areas to enjoy these facilities.

    c. Population pressure. Population pressure in the rural areas has also contributed to rural-urban migration. There is limited fertile land in the rural areas and yet there are increasing numbers of people on land. This causes diminishing returns. Individuals who have no access to land move to urban areas in search of employment.

    d. Formal and inappropriate education. Theoretical subjects which lack any practical bias and prepare students for white collar jobs are being taught in schools. The school-leavers lack any specific qualifications. They search for jobs appropriate to their kinds of formal education received in schools. Therefore, after leaving school, individuals tend to stay in urban areas unemployed.

    e. Minimum wage. To a small extent, there can be migration to urban areas arising from the setting up of minimum wages far above the average wage in the rural areas. Individuals tend to migrate to urban areas whenever they hear of any increase in the urban minimum wage. Unfortunately, the number of jobs in the urban areas is not increased. In some cases, the number of jobs is decreased.

    f. Standard of living. The rural people view the urban standard of living to be better than the rural standard of living and hence rural-urban migration. The rural people have a belief that the urban standard of living is far much better than the rural one.

    g. Social problems. This also plays a minor role towards rural urban migration and urban unemployment. Fear of witchcraft, circumcision and others are in most cases associated with rural areas. Individuals then try to escape to the urban areas where such are least experienced.

    8.4.3. Effects/Consequences of Rural-Urban Migration

    a. Open urban unemployment. Because of the constant movement of people from rural areas, there will be an increase in the number of people in urban areas who will be idle without jobs.

    b. The problem of dependents. Normally when the people move to urban areas, they tend to stay with their relatives. Therefore they may cause increased dependency on the side of their hosts which leads to low standards of living.

    c. Creation of slums. The presence of many people from villages to towns may cause scarcity of housing facilities. This in conjunction with low incomes, may cause the people to develop shanty housings leading to creation of slums.

    d. Government expenditure on social services increases. There will be

    increase in government expenditure on social services like hospitals and schools among others to cater for the growing population in the urban centers.

    e. High cost of living in urban areas. The increase in the number of people in urban centers will lead to an increase in the demand for the goods and services. This may not be accompanied by corresponding increase in the supply of goods. In the end, the prices will go up.

    f. The demand for social services exceeds the supply. There will be strain on the social services in the urban centers. This is because there is increase in the number of users and in the end there will be high costs of maintenance.

    g. Food prices increase as well as house rents. The prices of food as well as house rent will shoot up due to the increase in the number of users and in the end problems of poor standards of living and welfare will come up.

    h. Low agricultural output. Agriculture is mostly carried out in rural areas, therefore the increase in rural-urban migration means that the number of energetic young men and women who would stay and produce food will be moving to urban centers. Therefore there will be reduced productivity in rural areas.

    i. Rural development will be delayed. This is because as more and more people move to urban centers, the government will concentrate on the urban centers and neglect the rural areas since there are fewer people hence rural under development.

    8.4.4. Measures to control Rural-Urban Migration

    i. Rural development policy: This can be through:

    - The economic base of the rural areas must be strengthened so that productivity and earnings from agriculture are raised. A big percentage of the export earnings should be returned to the rural areas in form of farm implements so that increased capital formation can take place in the rural areas. Agricultural output can be improved by provision of more and better tools; provision of credit facilities; improvement of transport facilities; higher agricultural prices to farmers etc.

    - A comprehensive industrial program to employ otherwise redundant people should be introduced. Small-scale labour-intensive industries should be set up.

    - Special attention should be paid to building in small-country towns in rural areas, schools, hospitals, cinema halls and the like since people are more likely to remain in the countryside when amenities are reasonably close to where they live. In other words, rural areas should be made attractive.

    ii. Population control: The high population growth rates must be brought to a halt using various policies like use of family planning methods, giving a maximum number of children per family, reducing incentives like free education among others.

    iii. Education policy: To overcome the problem of school leavers, educationalists should change the educational curriculum to subjects with a more practical bias like farming, carpentry, simple mechanics and the like, to create more job seekers.

    iv. Financial infrastructure: The government should create an effective financial infrastructure that can assist people in rural areas with micro loans that are to be paid back with a small interest rate. This will help in the mobilisation of savings, which can be loaned to the farmers and they will be able to stay in rural areas.

    v. Wage policy: The minimum wage policy should either be abolished or made effective throughout the country such that even in the rural areas, people can earn the same wage as their colleagues in towns. This will reduce their movements to towns.

    vi. Rural-rural migration: There should be rural-rural migration. For instance, moving from Nyamirama to Ruramira not from Nyamirama to Kayonza town. However, this is difficult to manage.

    APPLICATION ACTIVITY 8.4

    In most developing world, you notice many young people in rural areas carrying their bags heading to cities. What do you think are the reasons pushing those young people in towns. What will happen to villages that those young people have left and what will happen to the cities where those people go. Assume you are one of policy makers in Rwanda, what measures will you put in place to reduce that practice of rural-urban migration.

    END UNIT ASSESSMENT

    1. Examine reasons why some people in Rwanda do not want to work.

    2. Why is it difficult to get all people in Rwanda employed?

    3. What do you think the Rwandan government should do to reduce the unemployment problem?

    4. How has the unemployment problem affected the development process in Rwanda?

    5. With reference to Rwanda, critically assess the Keynesian theory of unemployment.

    6. In your views what are the pull factors for rural-urban migration and how can curb down the rural-urban migration.




    UNIT 7 INFLATIONUNIT 9 PUBLIC FINANCE 1