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  • UNIT 7 INFLATION

    Key Unit Competency: Describe the impact of inflation on an economy.

    INTRODUCTORY ACTIVITY

    In a country X, the price of fuel increased from 1000 Francs to 1100 Francs per liter and as a result, the price of nearly all commodities increased as well. People go shopping with a sack full of money and purchase few commodities.

    Respond to the following questions:

    i. Explain why the increase of price of fuel leads to increase of the prices of commodities.

    ii. Discuss the effect the increase in the general prices brings to the economy.

    iii. Apart from increase in price of fuel, in your view what are other causes for the increase in price?

    iv. What is the relationship between prices and purchase power of money.

    v. What do you call the situation where there is persistent increase of prices of commodities in different periods?

    7.1. Meaning of inflation

    ACTIVITY 7.1.

    Discuss how the following shall affect the general price level in the country,

    1. When there is continuous unnecessary spending by the public and the government.

    2. When there is a continuous political turmoil in the country that disrupts human settled life and peace.

    3. When there is too much environmental degradation, deforestation that changes the climate and seasons.

    4. When the central Bank has printed too much money than production capacity.

    7.1.1. Definition

    Inflation is a situation where there is a persistent rise in the general price level. The general price implies an average of different commodity prices.

    Or Inflation refers to persistent increase in the general price level. Prices of most goods and services continuously rise. Inflation takes into account a general increase in price of a variety of commodities and not a single commodity. The following should be considered when defining inflation:

    - There is scarcity of commodities in markets,

    - Aggregate demand is greater than aggregate supply,

    - The country’s currency loses its real value

    - Prices are ever increasing

    Inflation rate is the speed at which the general price level is increasing. It is calculated as shown below.

    s

    7.1.2. Terms used in inflation

    - Stagflation: This refers to the situation where there is coexistence of both inflation and unemployment in an economy.

    - Deflation: This refers to the persistent fall in the general prices of goods and services in an economy.

    - Reflation: This is the deliberate government policy of forcing prices upward to recover to recover the economy from depression.

    - Suppressed inflation: This refers to the situation where aggregate demand exceeds aggregate supply but prices are not allowed to rise because of government price control.

    - Open inflation: This refers to inflation that is not suppressed ie prices are permitted to rise without being interfered with by the relevant authority.

    - Underlying inflation: This is inflation calculated by not considering the prices of foodstuffs.

    -7.1.2. Terms used in inflation

    - Stagflation: This refers to the situation where there is coexistence of both inflation and unemployment in an economy.

    - Deflation: This refers to the persistent fall in the general prices of goods and services in an economy.

    - Reflation: This is the deliberate government policy of forcing prices upward to recover to recover the economy from depression.

    - Suppressed inflation: This refers to the situation where aggregate demand exceeds aggregate supply but prices are not allowed to rise because of government price control.

    - Open inflation: This refers to inflation that is not suppressed ie prices are permitted to rise without being interfered with by the relevant authority.

    - Underlying inflation: This is inflation calculated by not considering the prices of foodstuffs.

    - Headline inflation: This is inflation calculated by considering the prices of foodstuffs.

    - Inflationary spiral: This is a situation where the increase in price leads to increase in the demand for high wages which in turn increases the cost of production and employers react by increasing the prices and the process continues.

    APPLICATION ACTIVITY 7.1 Headline inflation: This is inflation calculated by considering the prices of foodstuffs.

    - Inflationary spiral: This is a situation where the increase in price leads to increase in the demand for high wages which in turn increases the cost of production and employers react by increasing the prices and the process continues.

    APPLICATION ACTIVITY 7.1

    After making research, describe whether inflation is desirable or undesirable to an economy and suggest reasons to support your argument.

    7.2. States, Types and Causes of inflation

    ACTIVITY 7.2.

    Study the table below and answer the questions below it.

    d

    1. Which month of the year 2015 had the lowest inflationary rate?

    2. What could be the reasons for the low rate of inflation

    3. Which month had the highest inflationary rate

    4. How do you call the inflationary rate of June and July2015

    5. What might have been the causes of the change in prices between October and November 2015?

    7.2.1 States of inflation

    We may categorise inflation by looking at the speed of the change in the general price level or by the cause of the increase in the general price level. Using the degree/ speed of the increase we get the following states:

    Creeping/ mild/ gradual inflation: This is where there is a slow increase in the general price level and the inflation rate is lies between below 3%. It gives an incentive to producers by widening their profit margins. It encourages investment and production.

    Walking/Trotting inflation: This occurs when the rate of inflation lies between is 3-9%. It is a warning to the government to starting implementing policies that may reduce this rate. It shows that conditions are moving towards the worse.

    Running/galloping inflation: This occurs where the rate of inflation is between 10-20%.

    Hyper/ runaway inflation: This is where the speed at which prices are increasing is 20% and above. It is the worst inflation which calls for stringent government interventions to control it. There is too much money in circulation purchasing too few commodities.

    7.2.2 Types of inflation

    ACTIVITY 7.3

    A. “It is in May and the current financial year is coming towards the end. A new financial year is yet to start on 1st July. A new national budget is yet to be presented to the Parliament. It is expected that the new budget will pronounce some increment on the existing indirect taxes and introduce some new ones.”

    B. “There is a change in the weather conditions that have brought about dry spell that has affected crops in the field. This has been followed by Elnino that has left most agricultural fields flooded.”

    Discuss the likely outcomes of the above on the economy in the current period and in the forthcoming period.

    As stated earlier, inflation may be categorized according to the cause of the increase in the general price level. This gives us the following types.

    - Structural inflation.

    - Cost push inflation.

    - Demand pull inflation.

    - Imported inflation.

    - Monetary inflation.

    - Speculation inflation.

    a. Structural inflation. This occurs when supply is kept low by factors that disrupt production of goods and services. There is low supply of commodities which does not correspond with the available demand. This keeps pushing prices upwards. It is also called bottleneck or scarcity inflation. Such factors bring down the volume of production.

    Causes of Structural inflation

    - Unfavorable changes in weather conditions.

    - Foreign exchange shortages.

    - Collapse of supply routes.

    - Outbreak of instabilities.

    - Poor land tenure systems.

    - Breakdown of machinery.

    - Mismanagement in the economy.

    b. Cost push inflation

    Cost push inflation is also called supply inflation or sellers’ inflation. It is the persistent increase in the prices of goods and services brought about by increase in the cost of production. Higher costs of production can decrease the aggregate supply (the amount of total production) in the economy. Since the demand for goods hasn’t changed, the price increases from production costs are passed onto consumers creating cost-push inflation.

    d

    P represents price

    Y represents output

    AD represents aggregate demand

    SRAS represents short run aggregate supply

    From the figure above it can be seen that when the costs of production increase,

    aggregate supply reduces from SRAS1 to SRAS2 output reduces from Y1 to Y2

    leading to price increase from P1 to P2.

    Causes of Cost push inflation

    - Continuous increase in wages.

    - Continuous increase in price of fuel which increases transport cost.

    - Increase in price of raw materials.

    - High interest rates on borrowing which makes the cost of borrowing high.

    - Increase in rent.

    Cost push inflation appear in the following forms:

    i. Wage – price inflation. This occurs when an increase in wages leads to increase in the costs of production resulting into increase in prices of commodities.

    a

    iii. Price – wage inflation. This occurs when there is an increase in prices of commodities which leads to increase in the cost of living forcing workers to demand for increase in wages. This in turn increases the cost of production leading to further increase in prices.

    f

    vi. Profit – push inflation. This occurs when prices are continuously increased as a result of producer’s desire to make high profits. It may also be called profit mark inflation.

    c. Demand pull inflation

    This is where there is a continuous increase in general price level as a result of a continuous increase in aggregate demand where aggregate demand exceeds aggregate supply in conditions of full employment. As aggregate demand keeps rising, the general price level also keeps rising further. This is because there is no corresponding increase in aggregate supply.

    s

    P represents price

    Q represents output

    AD represents aggregate demand

    LRAS represents long run aggregate supply

    From figure above, it can be seen that when demand aggregate increases from AD1 to AD7, the price level increases from P1 to P7. Up to AD5, quantity supplied increases with quantity demanded and its at that point that resources are fully utilized. Increase in AD beyond Q5, is what Keynes described as true inflation, where ASS is constant so any increase in demand will be inflationary since supply cannot be increased to cater for the increasing demand. Demand pull inflation in terms of income determination, occurs when aggregate expenditure C+I+G+(X-M) is too high that it exerts an upward pressure on the price level.

    Causes of demand pull inflation

    - Increase in population.

    - Increase in government expenditure which increase money supply.

    - Increase in investment expenditure.

    - Increase in money supply.

    - Uncontrolled inflow of foreign exchange.

    Demand pull inflation can be reduced by

    - Increasing direct taxes to reduce disposable incomes.

    - Implementing a restrictive monetary policy by the central bank e.g selling securities to the public or increasing the minimum lending rate

    (bank rate).

    - Controlling population growth rates. This reduces consumption expenditure.

    - Reducing government expenditure on non productive ventures.

    - Reducing money supply.

    - Reducing wages and/ or keeping them constant (wage freeze).

    - Reducing exports to avoid scarcity of commodities.

    - Increasing imports to expand aggregate supply.

    d. Imported inflation

    This is inflation that results from importing goods from countries affected by inflation. Commodities are imported when their prices are already high. Transports costs, import and /or export taxes, and other expenses involved in lead to further increase in price of the imported commodity.

    e. Monetary inflation

    This is inflation that results from continuous increase in money supply. The explanation for this kind of inflation is expressed in Irving Fisher’s theory of money

    MV = PT according to Irving Fisher’s quantity theory of money. Where

    - M is the amount of money in circulation.

    - V is the speed at which money changes hands and this depends on the level business activity.

    - T is the transaction level.

    - P is the general price level.

    But V and T are assumed constant. Thus continuous increase in M leads to a corresponding increase in P. When there is an increase money supply, it translates into an increase in aggregate demand. This may push the prices upwards if there isn’t a corresponding increase aggregate supply.

    f. Speculation inflation

    This is inflation that comes as a result of speculation by sellers. Sellers foresee a drop in supply in the future. Commodities are available in the current period but sellers hoard them with the intention of selling them in the future when there is scarcity. This creates an artificial shortage which in turn creates a favourable ground for sellers to increase prices.

    7.2.3 Causes of inflation

    ACTIVITY 7.4

    Make research on the various factors that bring about continuous inflationary tendencies in an economy.

    - Political instabilities. Political instability reduces production thereby creating scarcity of goods and services. It also increases government expenditure and money supply leading to inflation.

    - Increase in government expenditure. This increases money supply and aggregate demand. If this is not followed by a corresponding increase in aggregate supply, then it will result into inflation.

    - Reduction in production. This may be due to a number of factors. It reduces supply of goods and services creating shortages in markets. This leads to increase in prices.

    - Growth of underground economy. This may lead to uncontrolled inflow of incomes and increase in aggregate demand e.g smuggling of commodities to foreign markets reduce supply in the domestic market.

    - High population growth rates which will lead to increases aggregate demand. It may also reduce aggregate supply by putting pressure on the available resources like land.

    - Inadequate supply of resources. Scarcity of factor of production like raw materials, land, capital etc keeps production and aggregate supply low leading to increase in the general price levels.

    - High fuel costs increases costs of production leading to cost push inflation.

    - Natural calamities reduce aggregate supply leading to shortages resulting into high prices.

    - Practice of monopoly companies. These firms continuously increase prices of their commodities in order to widen their profit margins. This results into profit push inflation.

    - Deficit financing. This increases money supply pushing aggregate demand to high levels exceeding aggregate supply. This leads to continuous increase in the general price levels.

    - Mismanagement of the economy. This reduces aggregate supply by limiting production of goods and services.

    - Structural breakdowns in production lines. Breakdown of machinery, disruption of supply routes, etc brings down production creating scarcity of goods and services. This leads to structural inflation.

    - Import of raw materials and other inputs as well as luxuries at high prices increases prices of commodities in the domestic market.

    APPLICATION ACTIVITY 7.2

    1. Basing on the findings from research conducted, Inflation

    arises when aggregate demand exceeds aggregate supply in the

    condition of full employment level of national income.

    Explain that type of inflation and discuss the factors that increase

    aggregate demand.

    2. Rwanda imports food items like Cooking Oil, Rice, and Caned Fish.

    Describe what would be the effect of the following on the price of

    these commodities.

    - Continuous increase in price of these commodities in exporting

    countries.

    - Increase on transport costs on importing routes.

    - Increase in taxes both import and export duties on these items.

    7.3. Effects of inflation and measures to control it.

    ACTIVITY 7.5

    The income of the consumer is fixed at 300,000frw per month while the price of a kilogram of rice is 1500frw per kilogram. Assuming this consumer was to spend all her income on rice:

    i. Determine how many kilograms she would purchase.

    ii. Determine what will happen to the amount of rice she can purchase if the price kept increasing to 2000, 2500 3000 and eventually to 4000.

    From your findings, explain to your bench mate the effect that continuous increase in the general price level has on the purchasing power of the consumers with fixed incomes.

    7.3.1 Effect of inflation

    Positive effects of inflation (mild inflation)

    - Encourages investments because of increase in the profit margins

    - Gives incentive to work

    - Encourages borrowing since the borrowers pay back in the inflated amount.

    - Increased to stock of assets

    - Creates employment through investments

    Negative effects of inflation

    - Fixed income earners loose because their income loose its real value. The amount of goods and services that an amount of nominal income can purchase reduces.

    - Discourages savings. Savings loose their real value. People tend to prefer converting their incomes into fixed assets.

    - Discourages lending. Those who lend out part of their incomes are paid when it has lost value.

    - It creates BOP problems. This is because exports are discouraged and reduces export revenues.

    - It increases the costs of production. Workers demand for wage increments through their trade unions, because of increase in the cost of living. The cost of raw materials and other inputs increase. All this makes production expensive.

    - Plans fail. This is because money that is planned to be used in the implementation of economic plans looses its real value. For instance, contracts have to be readjusted to cater for the effect of inflation.

    - Farmers loose. By harvest, farmers receive incomes that have lost value (depreciated) different from what they expected during planting season.

    - It encourages rural urban migration. The disillusioned rural populations move to urban areas with the hope of accessing improved livelihoods. This worsens the situation by creating other evils like open urban unemployment.

    - Local currency looses its value in terms of other currencies. Importation becomes expensive. This creates further scarcity of essential imported commodities like medicines, raw materials etc.

    - It may cause instabilities in the society. For instance, it may lead to workers strikes, social unrest and discontent etc.

    7.3.2 Policy measures to control inflation

    ACTIVITY 7.6

    Hold discussion on the measures that can be applied to reduce the rate of inflation.

    The following are measures to control the inflation in the economy:

    - Reduction of money supply. This can be done through restrictive monetary policy e.g selling securities to the public, increasing the Bank rate and Legal reserve requirement etc.

    - Price controls. The government may use maximum price legislation to prevent further increase in prices.

    - Reduce export of scarce commodities. This helps to prevent creating further shortages of commodities that are already scarce.

    - Reduce wages or keep them constant (wage freeze). This helps to keep costs of production and aggregate demand low. This stabilizes prices.

    - Increasing direct taxes. This reduces the disposable incomes of consumers and help to reduce aggregate demand and prices.

    - Reduce government expenditure on non-productive ventures. This helps to reduce aggregate demand.

    - Control population growth rates. This also checks on increase in aggregate demand and controls demand pull inflation.

    - Maintain political stability. This ensures continued production and supply of goods and services which keeps prices low. It also reduces unnecessary expenditure on non-productive ventures.

    - Encourage domestic and foreign investments. This increases supply of commodities in markets and keeps prices low.

    - Increase production. Measures should be put in place that can increase production and supply of goods and services.

    - Import scarce commodities. Supply of scarce commodities can be increased through importation. Increase in supply keeps prices low.

    - Reduce imports from countries affected by inflation. This prevents imported inflation.

    - Carry out currency reforms. This may be applied during periods of hyper inflation. The highly depreciated currency that has lost value may be replaced by a new currency.

    - Control the distribution channels of scares commodities. This helps to avoid situations where profit motivated sellers increase prices to make huge profits.

    APPLICATION ACTIVITY 7.3

    To what extent is inflation harmful to an economy especially to people with a fixed income like pensioners?

    7.4. Relationship between inflation and unemployment.

    ACTIVITY 7.7

    Make research on the illustration of Philips curve and indicate how it explains the relationship between inflation and unemployment.

    The Phillips curve was introduced by an American, A W Phillips in 1958. It shows the relationship between inflation and unemployment. According to Phillips, there is an inverse relationship between inflation and unemployment. A rise in the rate of inflation leads to a decrease in the rate of unemployment. During inflationary periods, there is too much money in circulation, and aggregate demand is high to stimulate investment and employment creation. This reduces the rate of unemployment.

    PHILLIPS CURVE.

    d

    Phillips argument informed monetary and fiscal policies in the 1960s but only worked in the short run. Later events went against this argument of Phillips especially in the 1970s when there was a rise in both inflation and unemployment a condition termed as stagflation. Phillips argument could not generate policy measures to solve both unemployment and inflation at that time.

    However, as opposed to Phillips argument, experience has proved that hyperinflation may lead to unemployment as shown below.

    - During periods of hyperinflation, money loses its real value. People prefer to invest their money into assets than using it to carry out ventures that may create employment opportunities. The rate of employment creation reduces.

    - Cost push inflation makes production expensive. This may forces producers to scale down the production volumes. As a result, some resources are laid off creating unemployment.

    - Unemployment implies that most resources are idle and not involved in production. There is no output from such resources. Thus total output is kept low. This also implies that aggregate supply is low. Any change in aggregate demand therefore will create an inflationary tendency.

    - During inflation, money loses real value. The real wage of the workers keeps reducing. This makes trade unions to demand for wage increments. This increase further the costs of production forcing producers to scale down their scales of production. Reduction in production size implies lying off some resources which become unemployed.

    - Inflation reduces the purchasing power of consumers. This reduces the market for producers who respond by keeping their production low. This reduces the rate of employment creation which in turn breeds unemployment.

    APPLICATION ACTIVITY 7.4

    d

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    i. From the figure, comment on the differences in the basket of goods among three periods.

    ii. From the research and discussions carried out discuss the view “Inflation not only affects just goods and services but also wages and incomes.

    iii. Comment on the relationship between inflation and the general welfare.

    SKILLS LAB

    Visit nearby traders in your school community and investigate how they fix prices of commodities .After, select any 4 food staffs and fix their prices in different periods and provide a convincing advice on the dangers of frequent increase in prices on traders’ profitability, the welfare of the buyers and the economy as a whole. Student teachers should apply the knowledge from research to create their businesses in the school environment.

    END UNIT ASSESSMENT

    1. Explain reasons why inflation and deflation are considered to be economic problem.

    2. Discuss the likely impact on the rise in the global commodity prices on industrial economy

    3. Assess the effectiveness of monetary policy in controlling inflation.

    4. Explain the factors responsible for the continuous rise of the general price levels in most developing economies.

    5. Analyse the outcomes of hyperinflation on an economy.

    6. 6. Examine the measures that your country has adopted to control the rate of inflation.

    7. With the help of an illustration, explain the relationship between inflation and unemployment according to A. W. Phillips.

    8. Discuss the view that hyperinflation leads to unemployment.




    UNIT 6 FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONSUNIT 8 UNEMPLOYMENT