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  • UNIT 3 PRICE INDICES

    Key unit Competency: Analyze the effects of price changes in an economy over time.

    INTRODUCTORY ACTIVITY

    Study the photographs shown below.

    d

    The general prices of fruits, vegetables and other commodities in Rwandan markets in 2014 were not the same as they were in 2016. There has been a tremendous change overtime.

    1. Using photographs above determine the prices of the commodities in 2014 and those of the 2016.

    2. How do we call the change in prices of commodities from one year to another?

    3. Relate the prices of the year 2014 to those of 2016.

    4. Calculate the price changes from 2014 to 2016.

    5. How would you interpret such changes in prices from 2014 to 2016?

    3.1. Meaning and types of price indices

    ACTIVITY 3.1

    Carry out research and discuss the following terms:

    i. Price index

    ii. Consumer price index (CPI)

    iii. Producer price index(PPI)

    iv. Gross Domestic Product deflator ( GDP deflator)

    v. Retail price index (RPI)

    Price index can be defined as the measure of average percentage change in price, from one period to another. i.e. from a base year to current year. It can also be defined as the measure of the variation in the prices of a given class of goods and services over a period of time in a given region. It shows average changes in price over a period of time i.e. from a base year to a current year.

    Types of price indices

    The following are some of the price indices

    1. Consumer price index (CPI); This measures the changes in the price level of a basket of consumer goods and services bought by households. The National Institute of Statistics of Rwanda (NISR) collects the CPI price information and calculates the CPI statistics for Rwanda on a monthly basis

    2. Producer price index (PPI); this measures the average changes in the prices received by domestic producers for their output.

    3. Gross Domestic Product deflator (GDP deflator); it is sometimes referred to as implicit price deflator. It is a measure of the level of prices of all new, domestically produced final goods and services in an economy. It can be measured by;

    d

    4. Retail price index (RPI); this is the measure of the variation of consumer prices or consumer retail goods and services over a period of time. RPI is computed on a monthly basis but an annual rate is also published which serves as a yard stick for adjusting salaries and wages, tax allowances and pensions among others.

    APPLICATION ACTIVITY 3.1

    Using the knowledge of price index, describe how the government of Rwanda measures prices for a basket of goods

    3.2. Steps of compiling price index figures.

    ACTIVITY 3.2

    Carry out a research and determine the following:

    1. Basket of commodities

    2. Price relative

    3. Weighted index

    4. Weighted cost of living index

    5. Procedures of compiling price indices for various commodities of a given country.

    - Selecting the base year: This is the year when prices were relatively stable and it is equated to 100% so as to show the change in the prices. It should not be in a remote period or past because methods of data collections, definitions, scope and coverage, market conditions, peoples’ expenditure etc. change over time.

    - Selecting the basket of commodities. This is a basket which represents commodities that were wholly consumed by the people in a country during a period of time.

    - Collecting information about the basket of commodities i.e. on quantities and prices of goods consumed.

    - Calculating the simple price index/ price relative. This measures the percentage change in prices of one commodity from one year to another ie. From base year to current year. This is calculated by:

    c

    Where Pt = current year price

    Po = base year price.

    If the price relative or simple price index is greater than 100%, it means that there has been a rise in the price of that commodity. If the price relative or simple price index is equal to 100%, it means that there has been no change in the price of that commodity. If the price relative or simple price index is less than 100%, it means that there has been a fall in the price of that commodity.

    NB: Price relatives have no units.

    Attaching weights. Weights are attached to show the relative value of the goods. The commodity with the biggest weight has more value than the one with a small weight. This is done by.

    Weighted index = SPI x Weights.

    - Calculating the simple cost of living index/ average simple index / average price relatives:

    This measures the relative changes in money value (inflation / deflation). This is done to measure the changes in standard of living of citizens over time based on the cost of living. If the simple cost of living index is above 100%, it shows there is inflation and a fall in money value by that percentage exceeding 100, which indicates an increase in cost of living and fall in standard of living by the same percentage from the base year to the current year. On the other hand, if the simple cost of living index is less than 100%, it shows there is a deflation and an increase in money value by that percentage less to 100, which indicates a fall in cost of living and an increase in standard of living by the same percentage from the base year to the current year.

    d

    Calculating the weighted cost of living index/ average weighted index.

    - This measures the changes in the general price level in an economy. i.e. whether there is inflation or deflation. If the weighted cost of living index is above 100%, it shows there is inflation which indicates an increase in cost of living and fall in standard of living by the percentage over 100% from the base year to the current year. On the other hand, if the weighted

    cost of living index is less than 100%, it shows there is a deflation which indicates a fall in cost of living and an increase in standard of living by the same percentage less to 100% from the base year to the current year.

    This is done by

    d

    Interpreting the findings to determine whether there was an increase or a decrease in the prices of the consumer basket during a given period of time

    3.3. Computation of price indices

    Example

    Study the table below and answer the questions that follow:

    d

    Calculate

    i. The Simple Price Index for 2016

    ii. Weighted index

    iii. Simple cost of living index for 2016

    iv. Average weighted index for 2016

    N.B. Interpret your findings

    i. The Simple price index(SPI) can be calculated in the following steps 

    Step one

    Calculate the SPI for each commodity for each year

    Sugar

    c

    g

    Fish


    SPI for fish is = 60.

    Interpretation

    This indicates that there is an increase in price of sugar, rice and salt by 100%, 50% and 50% respectively. While there was a fall in price of fish by 40%

    ii. Attach weights for the different commodities by;

    Weighted index (WI) = SPI x weights

    Sugar

    WI= 200x 3= 600

    Salt

    WI= 150x 1= 150

    Rice

    WI= 150x 5= 750

    Fish

    WI= 60x 2= 120

    iii. Calculating the simple cost of living index/ average price relatives

    f

    Interpretation:

    There was an increase in the general price level prices of goods and services by 40% and fall in money value by the same percentage. This indicates that there was an increase in the cost of living and fall in standard of living by 40% from the base year to the current year.

    iv. Calculating the weighted cost of living index/ average weighted index

    d

    Interpretation:

    There was inflation by 47.2%. This indicates that there was an increase in the cost of living and fall in standard of living by 47.2% from the base year to the current year.

    APPLICATION ACTIVITY 3.2

    Price Index figures are useful means used by Rwanda to compare and contrast information in different periods and facilitate in taking development policies.

    1. Explain how price index figures compiled in various periods are related to the cost of living and standard of living of the Rwandan population.

    2. Explain how the government of Rwanda uses the knowledge of Price indices to create employment in the country.

    3.4. Uses of price indices.

    ACTIVITY 3.3

    The consumer price index (CPI) is used to measure the average change in prices of commodities which consumers pay for the basket of goods and services. For what reasons are the change in price information useful to Rwanda’s situation?

    - Measuring changes in the value of money. When the general price level increases, the real value of money (commodities which a unit of money can buy) reduces. When the general price level reduces the real value of money increases.

    - It is the measure of the rate of inflation which is the difference between relative price changes of 2 years. When the price increases, it means there is inflation. When the price reduces, it means there is a deflation.

    - Wage determination and change i.e. wage changes should match with changes in the general price level to avoid a decline in the standard of living of workers when there is inflation and this can be done basing on the price index figures.

    - The price index can be compiled for different regions and towns so as to determine allowances, wages, taxes etc which should match with inflation.

    - Comparison purposes. The price Index can be used to compare the standard of living between countries at a point of time, and in one country over time.

    - The producers’ price index for inputs is used to measure the variations of input prices. This helps policy makers when designing policies to influence input prices.

    - The price index helps the government in pricing contracts and awarding tenders e.g. for construction, input price variation is important when determining total costs to fix and to revise contract values.

    - The central bank uses price indices to design policies which can stabilize prices.

    - The price index for different regions in the country helps manufactures to locate sources of cheaper inputs and areas with higher output prices where to sell commodities.

    - Price indexes help the government to trace the cause of scarcity of inputs which are reflected in their prices e.g. the drought can be the cause of increase of agricultural raw materials

    APPLICATION ACTIVITY 3.3

    Discuss how the government uses the knowledge of price indices in wage determination.

    3.5. Problems encountered in compiling price index figures.

    ACTIVITY 3.4

    1. Apart from selecting the base year, discuss other difficulties Rwanda faces in compiling price index.

    2. Explain how the technological advancement affects the price index figures.

    - There are different ways and formula of compiling index numbers. The values calculated may differ by the method used and this makes comparison difficult.

    - Choosing the base year. Because of inflation, it is difficult to get the year when prices were stable.

    - It is hard to include all commodities in the index. Representative commodities may not show the cost of living of same groups of people though attempts are usually made to include in as many commodities as possible.

    - Because of changes in tastes and preferences, weights (relative importance that people attach to commodities) change over time and therefore there is need to compile new index numbers over time.

    - Weights always change because of new discoveries, innovations and changes in consumption patterns meaning that the importance or the value of the commodity may vary in the same year

    - The change in the general price level may be due to change in quality of products. This may be misinterpreted to be inflation.

    - Differences in income e.g. the rich and the poor consumer different commodities. Therefore, one index cannot reflect the change in cost of living of all income groups.

    - The introduction of new commodities and the changes in the tastes and preferences also lead to shift to other commodities hence a problem when comparing the prices in the different years.

    APPLICATION ACTIVITY 3.4

    Assuming you are employed as a Statistician by National Institute of Statistics for Rwanda (NISR).Describe the limitations you will face in gathering data of various baskets of goods.

    END UNIT ASSESSMENT

    1. Discuss how the concept of GDP deflator is directly related to the general welfare of people of a given country.

    2. Explain how inflation and deflation are determined under price index computation.

    3. Discuss why commodities that make up the basket of goods do not always yield identical weights.

    4. Study the table below and answer the questions below it.

    s

    Calculate:

    i. Simple price index for 2016

    ii. Weighted index for 2016

    iii. Simple cost of living index for 2016

    iv. Weighted cost of living index for 2016

    v. Interpret the finding to determine whether there is an increase or a

    decrease in the prices of consumer basket of goods and why.



















    UNIT 2 MEASURING NATIONAL INCOMEUNIT 4 CONSUMPTION, SAVING, INVESTMENT AND MULTIPLIERS.