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  • UNIT 11 POPULATION

    Key Unit Competency: Analyse the impact of population growth on economic development

    INTRODUCTORY ACTIVITY

    Hospital attendant: These days we receive many expecting mothers. They all deliver well and in around two days, they are discharged. I don’t know why? I think the number of people living in this country is going to increase.

    Sector executive secretary: In my sector, the number of residents has increased. There are many people coming to reside here these days. But other residents migrated and left this village. I cannot tell exactly the number of people living in this sector now.

    Hospital attendant: And of course, this being an urban area, it receives many people during the day who come for businesses and then go back to their respective areas in the evening.

    Sector executive secretary: There is improvement in medical care, nutrition, public awareness, and others 

    Read through the conversation above and find out the meaning of population as implied therein.

    11.1. Meaning of population and population census

    ACTIVITY 11.1

    Make research and describe the following terms as used in demographic

    studies..

    i. Population explosion.

    ii. Fertility rate.

    iii. Birth rate.

    iv. Death rate.

    v. Child mortality rate.

    vi. Infant mortality rate.

    Population is the number of people living in a given area at a certain point in time.

    Population explosion. This is a geometric rapid increase in the size of a population caused by such factors as a sudden decline in infant mortality or an increase in life expectancy. It signifies an increase in the number of people that reside in a certain area, or country. It is determined by the formula: (birth rate + immigration) - (death rate + emigration). Population explosion may be a result of

    i. High Birth Rate which may be due to early marriages.

    ii. Polygamy a cultural practice where a man marries more than one wife.

    iii. Poverty where majority of poor populations consider children as asset and they earn at a very low age and bring wages. It helps in the rapid population growth.

    iv. Illiteracy which limits the use of contraceptives, encourages the belief in superstitions that promotes a culture of producing more children.

    v. Limited access to contraceptives. This may be due to poverty and lack of information.

    vi. Improvements in medical care. Advancement in medical facilities and public health service helped reduce death rate. Immunization has helped to check epidemics like measles, cholera, malaria, influenza, TB, Polio, etc, and this has reduced death rate tremendously.

    - Crude Birth Rate is expressed as the number of births per 1000 people in a given population.

    s

    It is used to make population projections over a period of time.

    - Fertility rate (FR) is the average number of children that would be born to

    a woman if she were to live to the end of her childbearing years and bear

    children in accordance with current age-specific fertility rates. It can also

    be Total period fertility rate (TPFR) of a population. Age specific fertility

    rates is number of births occurring during a given year or reference period

    per 1,000 women of reproductive age classified in single-or five-year age

    groups

    - Child mortality rate is the probability per 1,000 that a newborn baby will

    die before reaching age five, if subject to age-specific mortality rates of the

    specified year.

    - According WHO, globally, under-five mortality rate has decreased by

    53%, from an estimated rate of 91 deaths per 1000 live births in 1990

    to 43 deaths per 1000 live births in 2015. With the end of the MDG era,

    the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) period have set in where the

    target is to end preventable deaths of newborns and children under 5

    years of age.

    - The proposal is for all countries to aim reduce under-five mortality to at

    least as low as 25 per 1000 live births.

    - Infant mortality rate is the number of infants dying before reaching one

    year of age, per 1,000 live births in a given year.

    11.2. Reasons for population census.

    ACTIVITY 11.2

    Census in Rwanda dates back to the 1970s. To date, four modern censuses have successfully been conducted in Rwanda, in 1978, 1991, 2002 and 2012…

    The RPHC4 is a reliable and comprehensive source of data which compared to other official statistics data sources (administrative data, surveys, etc.) allows for disaggregation to the lowest geographical level. The RPHC4 was undertaken to update the national mapping and demographic databases, to provide indicators for monitoring poverty reduction strategies and achievement of international development goals (MDGs, ICPD-PoA, NEPAD, etc.) and to strengthen the technical capacity of the National Institute of Statistics of Rwanda (NISR)…

    In order to ensure focused functioning during the whole period of Census

    execution, a Census Unit was created within the NISR, as an executing

    unit, and benefiting from other financial, logistical and technical support

    services from the NISR

    Following the preparatory phase of the Census, which consisted of the

    production of the project documents, schedule and Census budget, the

    following technical activities were undertaken:

    - Census mapping;

    - A Pilot Census;

    - Questionnaire and manual development;

    - Census publicity and sensitization campaign;

    - Recruitment and training of field staff;

    - Census enumeration; and

    - Post-enumeration activities...

    This Atlas is organized into 4 main parts: Administrative Structures, Physical characteristics, , Socio Economic Infrastructures and Thematic indicators. The 4th part is the main one, dealing with thematic indicators organized into 11main themes:

    • Migration

    • Economic Activity and Labour Force Participation

    • Non-Monetary Poverty

    • Education

    • Gender Status

    • Socio-economic characteristics of persons with disabilities

    • Socio-economic Status of Children

    • Socio-economic Status of Youth

    • Socio-economic Status of Aged People

    • Housing

    (source: Fourth Population and Housing Census, Rwanda, 2012. CENSUS ATLAS January 2014)

    a. Read the passage above and determine the meaning of population census.

    b. Apart from the number of people, what other important variables does a population census identify?

    11.2.1. Meaning of population census:

    This is the counting/ enumeration of people living in a certain area at a certain time. Population census: This is the counting/ enumeration of people living in a certain areas at a certain time.

    11.2.2. Reasons for carrying out population census

    The reasons for carrying out population census are:

    - To determine the population growth rates i.e the speed at which the population is changing.

    - To determine the correct size of population. This is helpful in planning for services that the government intends to provide to the public.

    - To establish the quality of population in terms of skills, health, education etc. a quality population is essential for the growth of an economy.

    -- To determine population distribution in terms of sex, age, region etc. this

    helps to determine the degree of dependence and its important in the

    planning process.

    - To determine the rate of employment and unemployment.

    - To establish the rate of internal and external migrations.

    - To help in the planning processes.

    - Collect data at the national level to facilitate calculation of essential

    demographic rates, especially rates for fertility and infant and child

    mortality, and to analyze the direct and indirect factors that determine

    levels and trends in fertility and child mortality

    11.3. Difficulties met when carrying out population census

    - Lack of adequate number of skilled enumerators to conduct the

    exercise effectively. This calls for training the enumerators first. Such

    trainings increase the cost of conducting a census.

    - Inadequate funds. In most cases, developing countries lack enough

    funds to finance population censuses. They are forced to borrow money

    for the exercise. This increases the debt burden. On other occasions, the

    population census is postponed and the country only relies on estimated

    figures/projections.

    - Unwilling population. The population may not be supportive of the

    exercise. The people may give it a wrong interpretation and/or relate it

    with politics. This makes them give wrong information which will give

    wrong analyses. This calls for massive sensitisation before the exercise

    commences which in turn increases the cost.

    - Hard to reach areas. A population census covers all areas of the country.

    In developing economies where communication infrastructures are

    not fully developed, there are areas that are so remote and accessing

    populations there is difficult. This delays the exercise. It may even bring

    in some inaccuracies where the unserious enumerators may be tempted

    to get information from second hand sources.

    - Questionnaires that ask inappropriate questions. Some questions

    given by on the questionnaire may not bring out the suitable required

    information. This is when they are not designed by competent firms.

    - Corruption in the agencies concerned. In most developing economies,

    corruption is a common evil. Finances meant for census activities may

    be embezzled and put to private use, tenders for the supply of materials

    like questionnaires, stationary, etc may be offered to incompetent firms

    at inflated costs etc. This increases the total cost of the exercise and may

    bring in inconsistencies which affects the final outcome.

    - Political instability. In most developing countries, there are instabilities

    that cannot allow population censuses to go on successfully. For instance,

    the conflicts in Burundi, Central Africa Republic, South Sudan, DRC,

    Alshabab activities in Somalia, Boko Haram in Nigeria to mention but a few

    cannot allow a successful census if it was to take place in such countries.

    - People giving incorrect information. Some people, for different reasons,

    ranging from political inclinations, illiteracy, to limited sensitisation may

    give wrong information. This misguides policy makers.

    APPLICATION ACTIVITY 11.1

    Rwanda has strategically chosen to look at its population as a vital

    human resource, the desired outcome for which is a creative, healthy

    and wealthy population. The 2012 census

    showed annual population growth for Rwanda slowing from 3.2% in

    2002 to 2.6% in 2011,

    though it remains among the highest in Africa. Over the same period, the

    population has

    increased from 8.1 million to 10.5 million while population density

    increased from 321 persons

    per square kilometre to 416 persons per square kilometre. This is the

    highest in Africa and

    among the highest in the world. The decline in the population growth

    rate indicates the

    success from the sustained campaign on responsible family planning, the

    increased uptake of contraceptive methods for both men and women,

    and improved living conditions including universal access to health and

    basic education…(EDPRS 2)

    Read the information above and answer questions that follow:

    i. Discuss reasons why Rwanda looks at its population as a vital human resource.

    d

    11.4. Population growth.

    Table 11.1 World population by region today.

    d

    ACTIVITY 11.3

    Study the table11.1 above showing world population by region and

    discuss the following:

    i. Why is the annual percentage change in population very high in

    Africa and low in Asia, yet Asia has the largest population?

    ii. Asia has the bigger land area than North America, yet it has the

    biggest population density. In your own view, what causes that

    phenomenon?

    iii. Why do you think Africa has the lowest percentage of urban

    population and what is the economic effect of this on Africa’s

    economy?

    iv. Why do you think the fertility rate is highest in Africa?

    v. Africa and Latin America and the Caribbean have a negative in

    Migrants. Explain the meaning, causes and its impact of increasing

    population to the economies of those areas.

    11.4.1 Meaning population growth

    Population growth is the increase or decrease in population of a given area/ region/country over time. It is measured by percentage change in the population.

    There are three types of population growth.

    1. Artificial population growth rate. This is the increase or decrease in population coming as a result of the differences between immigration and emigration. When a country receives more immigrants, the population increases. But when there is a high number of emigrants, the population reduces.

    2. Natural population growth. This is increase or decrease in population as a result of changes in birth rates and death rates.

    d

    3. Actual population growth: This is population growth resulting from combination of natural and artificial growth.

    Actual population growth = Birth Rate (BR)-Death Rate (DR) + Net migration (Immigration-Emigration).

    11.4.2. Factors responsible for high population growth rate.

    There are three major determinants of population growth:

    - Birth rate.

    Birth rate is the number of births in a year per thousand of the population. If

    the birth rate increases, other things remaining constant, the size of population

    increases. While if the birth rate decreases, other things equal, the size of the

    population reduces.

    - Death rate.

    Death rate is the number of deaths in a year per thousand of the population. If

    the death rate increases, other things remaining constant, the population size

    will decline. While if the death rate decreases, other things remaining constant,

    the population size will increase.

    - Migration.

    The change in population due to migration is referred to as artificial population

    growth rate. The population will increase if immigrations exceed emigrations

    and vice versa. Migration could be due to a number of reasons including: search

    for employment; search for a better living condition; political and insecurity

    problems in the home country.

    11.4.3 Calculation of population growth

    There are three types of population growth.

    a. Artificial population growth rate. This is the increase or decrease in

    population coming as a result of the differences between immigration and

    emigration. When a country receives more immigrants, the population

    increases. But when there is a high number of emigrants, the population

    reduces.

    b. Natural population growth. This is increase or decrease in population

    as a result of changes in birth rates and death rates.

    Natural population growth rate =

    a. Actual population growth: This is population growth resulting from

    combination of natural and artificial growth.

    Actual population growth = Birth Rate (BR)-Death Rate(DR) + Net migration(

    Immigration-Emigration)

    Example1:

    In 2017, there were 3,250 births in Kigali city with population of 223,000.

    Estimate the Crude Birth rate.

    CBR = (Live births ÷total population) X 1,000.

    CBR = (3,250 ÷ 223,000) X 1,000

    CBR = 14.57.

    So, there were 14.57 births for every 1,000 people in Kigali city.

    Example 2:

    In Kayonza district, in 2018, there were 5663 births. The total population was

    149,442. Estimate crude birth rate.

    CBR = (Live births ÷total population) X 1,000.

    CBR = 5663/149,442 * 1000 = 37.9.

    So, there were 37.9 births for every 1,000 people in Kayonza district.

    Example 3:

    In Kayonza district, in 2016, there were 6889 deaths. The total population was

    149,442. Estimate crude birth rate.

    CDR = (Deaths ÷total population) X 1,000.

    CDR = 6889/149,442 * 1000 = 46.09.

    So, there were 46.09 death for every 1,000 people in Kayonza district.

    Example 4:

    In 2016, Country “Z” had 8,320 immigrants and 7249 emigrants, according to

    their international arrivals and departure statistics. The total population (June

    2016) was estimated as 1,258,000. Calculate the crude net migration rate at that time.

    Crude net migration rate = I – E / P * 1,000

    Where;

    I is the number of immigrants or in-migrants

    E is the number of emigrants or out-migrants

    P is the total midyear population of the country or designated area.

    The NMR is (8,320-7249)/1258000 * 1000 = 0.85.

    Example 4:

    Given that Country “X’s” birth-rate is 82 and its death rate is 57, its net migration

    rate is 35.

    Estimate

    i. Natural population growth rate.

    ii. Actual population growth rate.

    Solution:

    i. Natural population growth rate = (BR – DR) /1000 *100

    = NPGR = (82 - 57) / 1000 * 100

    NPGR = 2.5.

    ii. Actual population growth rate.

    Actual population growth = Birth Rate (BR)-Death Rate (DR) + Net migration

    (Immigration-Emigration) / 1000 *100.

    = (82 – 57) + 35 / 1000 *100

    Actual population growth rate = 6.

    11.4.4. Effects and measures to control population growth

    a. Effects of high population growth rate

    i. Positive effects:

    - Labour supply. Labour supply increases leading to an increase in the

    level of output. Output will only increase if there is an abundance of

    complementary factors — land, capital, otherwise the law of diminishing

    returns may occur. An increasing population means that the majority of

    the people are young. Many people will be entering the labour force. Young

    people are energetic, initiative, inventive and willing to accept new ideas.

    An increasing population results into greater mobility of labour. All in all,

    an increasing population results into economic growth and development.

    - Wider market. The market size becomes bigger provided the additional

    population is employed. If the market enlarges, then investment, savings

    and output will all increase. Economies of scale will be enjoyed. Economic

    growth and development will be attained.

    - Increased investment. An increasing population stimulates investment

    and therefore, more employment opportunities will be created.

    - Revenue. Due to an increase in investment, government revenue is bound

    to increase.

    - Security. A growing population leads to the creation of big armies which

    are crucial for the country’s security. However, this will depend on whether

    the army is using up to-date modern military equipment.

    ii. Negative effects:

    - Low capital accumulation. Population growth retards capital

    accumulation. People are required to feed more children with the same

    level of income and hence a decline in the per capita income. This reduces

    the already low savings and consequently a low level of investment.

    Besides, a large amount of resources is diverted from productive projects

    to the setting up of social infrastructure facilities. As a result, capital

    accumulation is adversely affected. Employment opportunities are also

    limited.

    - Balance of payments problem. When population increases rapidly,

    domestic consumption of exportable goods increases and consequently

    there is a decline in the exportable surplus. Less foreign exchange is

    therefore obtained. On the other hand, to meet the demand for a rising

    population, more food and other consumer goods are required. It leads

    to an increase in the volume of imports. More foreign exchange is spent.

    Reduction in the volume of exports and an increase in the volume of imports

    lead to a balance of payments deficit. Consequently, the government may

    be forced to reduce the importation of capital goods and hence capital

    accumulation is affected. Economic growth and development are retarded.

    - Problem of inflation. As population increases, demand for goods and

    services also increases. Failure of supply to match the demand leads to an

    inflationary situation.

    - Problem of unemployment. A rapidly increasing population growth

    rate leads to the problem of unemployment. As population increases,

    the proportion of workers to the total population increases. Due to the

    absence of complementary factors (land, capital), it is difficult to increase

    the employment opportunities.

    - Adoption of poor technology. As a rapidly growing population reduces

    the rate of capital accumulation, the technology is kept at a low level. A

    rising population growth rate reduces incomes, saving and investment

    and consequently the people are compelled to use poor technology, which

    retards capital accumulation.

    - Environmental threats. The expansion of human activity and associated

    loss of habitat are the leading causes of the unprecedented extinctions of

    plant and animal species worldwide. The loss of biological diversity leads

    to instability of ecological systems, particularly those that are stressed by

    climate change or invasion of non-native species.

    - Problem of poverty and dependants. Rapid population growth

    aggravates poverty in developing countries by producing a high ratio of

    dependent children for each working adult. This leads to a relatively high

    percentage of income being spent on immediate survival needs of food,

    housing, and clothing. A rapidly growing population necessitates larger

    investment in the social infrastructure. Lack of available capital continues

    to frustrate the attempts of many developing countries to expand their

    economies and reduce poverty. Resources are diverted from directly

    productive assets (industries) to the setting up of the social infrastructure.

    Education, health, medical, transport and housing facilities are not

    enough due to the scarcity of resources. Too many people are chasing too

    few of these social facilities. Consequently, the quality of the population

    declines. Children attain a low level of education and start working at an

    earlier age. Families are acquired at an earlier age and hence the problem

    of dependants is aggravated. Consequently’ a low standard of living is

    experienced.

    - Massive Rural Urban migration problems. Increasing numbers and

    declining resources have caused ever increasing migration from rural to

    urban areas. Cities in developing countries are growing much faster than

    their administrations can cope with. Consequently, there is overcrowding

    and shortages of housing, water and sanitation in urban areas. With a

    growing proportion of citizens living in slums and shanty towns, diseases

    are of very serious concern.

    - Threats to internal and international security. Population growth is a

    major contributor to economic stagnation through its depressing effect

    on capital formation. With growing numbers of young people attempting

    to enter the labour force, many developing countries have extraordinarily

    high levels of unemployment. Often high rates of unemployment give

    rise to severe political instability, which ultimately threatens national

    and international security. The combination of poverty and violence

    is adding rapidly to the number of refugees seeking to move into more

    stable and prosperous areas. Growth of refugee and migrant populations

    are contributing to political instability and economic dislocation in many

    countries.

    11.4.5: Measures to control population growth

    ACTIVITY 11.4

    Basing on the photo below, explain what you think those people are

    demonstrating about? What do you think should be done to ensure that

    the population achieves a healthy and wealthy nation?

    s

    - Introducing sex education in the school curriculum to educate the youths/

    teenagers about the dangers of early sex which normally results into

    unwanted pregnancies which increases birth rate.

    - Encouraging family planning which includes the use of contraceptives.

    - Promoting girl child education since educated people produce few

    children because of different reasons.

    - Discouraging early marriage by raising the age of consent and punishing

    those who break the law.

    - Legalize abortion to prevent unwanted pregnancies where marriage laws

    are difficult to enforce.

    - Encouraging international migrations so that people can move to different

    countries

    - Setting up institutions to encourage population control e.g. family

    planning clinics, hospitals etc.

    - More campaigns to discourage polygamy which results into high birth

    rates

    - Improve health facilities to reduce infant mortality rates to assure parents

    that the few children produced will survive.

    - Reducing the demand for children by reducing their incentives like free

    education and bursaries. Etc.

    - Rural development programs e.g. modernization of agriculture and

    establishing socio- economic infrastructure.

    - Use of coercive measures e.g. fines, penalties, jail sentences or sterilization

    of men who break population laws.

    - Increasing government expenditure so as to increase productivity such

    that economic growth copes with population growth.

    - Encouraging social mobility among women by taking up formal jobs.

    - Provision of social and economic incentives to small families as a means

    of discouraging people from having large families e.g. giving free child

    education to the first 2 children in a family, housing and free medical

    facilities to such families.

    - Economic disincentives are instituted on large families’ e.g. denial of free

    education, medical care, high taxes on such families etc.

    - Encouraging internal migrations from areas of dense population to

    sparsely populated areas.

    - Massive sensitization to the public by the government and nongovernment

    organization about the dangers of high population growth

    rate and consequences of many children.

    APPLICATION ACTIVITY 11.2

    Rwanda Education Board (REB), through its department of curriculum

    development has of recent taken a decision of revising the schools’

    curriculum in all subjects at all levels. One of the cross cutting issues

    addressed in all subjects at all levels is comprehensive sexuality

    education.

    1. What do you think was the intention of REB to tackle this issue?

    2. Why is it necessary for your country to control the rapid population

    growth rate?

    3. What measures can be taken by the government of Rwanda to

    control population growth.

    11.5. Theories of population

    ACTIVITY 11.5

    1. Study the information in the table below and answer questions

    below it.

    s

    a. Plot the information on a single graph (Population growth and

    Food supply against Time) to determine a point (Lo) where

    Population growth is equal to Food supply.

    b. identify the conditions that are likely to set in after time (Lo).

    c. Suggest measures that can be used to avoid the conditions

    identified above.

    11.5.1 Malthusian population theory

    11.5.1.1. Introduction to the Malthusian population theory

    This theory was put up by Reverend Thomas Robert Malthus an English

    Economist (1798 — 1823) who pointed out the dangers of over population

    in relation to the supply of food. It explains the relationship between the

    population growth in relation to food supply. i.e. Population depends on food

    supply.

    When food supply increases, population growth increases and vice versa. The

    theory states that population increases faster than food supply and if unchecked

    leads to misery. Man’s biological capacity to reproduce himself exceeds his

    physical capacity to increase the food supply.

    2. Different economists came up with different theories on

    population. Make research on the following population theories:

    a. The Malthusian population theory

    b. The theory of demographic transition

    c. The theory of optimum population

    11.5.1.2. Assumptions of the Malthusian population theory

    Reverend Malthus assumed that:

    - Population growth depends on food growth and that when food supply

    increase, population also increases

    - The supply of land is fixed thus the operation of the law of diminishing

    returns.

    - Population grows at a geometric rate i.e. doubles itself per period of time

    e.g. 4, 8, 16, 32, 64 etc.

    - Food increases at an arithmetic rate i.e. adds a constant figure per period of

    time e.g. 8, 16, 24, 32, 40 etc.

    - At time ‘Lo’ population will be equal to food supply and this is what he calls

    the population trap.

    - Beyond the population trap, people be subjected to conflicts, starvation,

    famine, death, accidents, wars etc. and he calls these positive checks i.e.

    positive checks control population growth by increasing death rates

    - Man’s capacity to reproduce himself is greater than his capacity to

    produce food. Malthus therefore concluded that at one time population

    growth will be too much to be fed by the available food and this will lead

    to misery, suffering and death.

    - Every effort to improve the conditions of people through state subsidies

    and private charity would fail because of the increased population growth

    it generates.

    - He advocated for negative checks like late marriages, moral restrictions,

    celibacy that control population growth by reducing birth rate.


    d

    From the figure 11.1 above, line bcd represents the growth of population in the

    absence of any checks. Line ace represents Food growth. The actual population

    growth rate is represented by line bce in the presence of checks. Beyond time

    L0, population growth exceeds food supply, and therefore people are likely to

    starve to death. Malthus indicates that always there are positive and negative

    checks operating.

    11.5.1.3. Applicability/ Relevance of the Malthusian theory in LDCs.

    To a small extent, the Malthusian population theory is applicable in LDCs

    economies in the following ways;

    - Family planning measures are being used in many countries as suggested

    by Malthus to control population growth

    - The positive checks like diseases, accidents etc. exist in many countries

    - In many parts of the world, pressure on land forces many people into

    disputes and migration

    - Some areas in the world face food shortages as suggested by Malthus and

    this has led to deaths as a result of positive checks

    - Land being a fixed factor, faces diminishing returns in that when population

    increases, productivity of the land decreases and so food supply may

    reduce as population increases.

    11.5.1.4. Criticisms/ limitations of Malthusian theory

    To a big extent the theory is criticized because of the following reasons.

    - He did not consider the role of foreign aid and charitable organisations

    in assisting the increasing population through provision of food to over

    come hunger in such areas affected by

    - Malthus never stated the time when population growth would equal the

    food supply such that the country enters a population trap. It does not

    give a yardstick to determine the time when the population trap will be

    reached. If the time were known, then probably the government would

    devise ways and means of either increasing food supply or controlling

    population.

    - Food is not the only determinant of population growth as suggested by

    Malthus but there are other causes like migration, level of education,

    cultural values etc.

    - He underrated the agricultural technological developments in the

    production of food. He could not foresee the unprecedented improvements

    in agricultural technology. Due to this rapid improvement in agricultural

    technology, the food supply has increased much faster than the arithmetical

    progression.

    - The theory did not put into consideration international trade which can

    increase food supply by importation but considered a closed economy.

    Food supply can be increased through international trade where food

    production in one country may be limited by limited supply of land.

    However, with free trade and regional integration, supply can be increased

    through international trade so as to avoid positive checks setting into

    motion.

    - The possibility of modernizing agriculture to increase agriculture was not

    foreseen by Malthus. i.e. Productivity of land can be increased application

    fertilizers and use of high yield varieties to increase food supply.

    - There is no mathematical relationship between food growth and

    population growth

    - International migrations were ignored by the theory. The population

    could not outstrip the food supply due to international migrations. I.e. he

    didn’t not consider people moving from one country to another to reduce

    population pressure

    - Malthus never thought of the possibility of getting additional supplies of

    land by opening up new areas.

    - According to Malthus, preventive checks possibility only pertains to moral

    restraint and late marriages. Malthus never thought of the introduction of

    modern techniques of family planning devices.

    - Malthus takes the increase in population as a result of rising birth rate.

    Population, however, has increased tremendously due to a decline in

    the death rate. He could not foresee the rapid improvements in medical

    facilities.

    - Population figures available do not support the view that population

    grows geometrically

    - The theory is based on subsistence production but current production is largely monetized.

    11.5.2. The theory of demographic transition

    ACTIVITY 11.6

    Carry out research on the following questions and then present to the class.

    1. What is demography transition theory?

    2. Explain with the aid of illustration, the stages of demographic transition.

    3. Which stage do you think Rwanda belongs and why?

    4. Differentiate between demographic dividend and demographic trap

    Demography is the study of population characteristics like birth rates and

    death rates and their effects on population changes.

    The theory of demographic transition was first developed by the American

    demographer Frank W. Notestein in the mid-twentieth century, but it has

    since been expanded upon by many others. The demographic transition theory

    is a description of the changing pattern of mortality, fertility and population

    growth rates as societies move from one demographic era to another. It is an

    explanation of population growth in a historical manner.

    d

    Frank W. Notestein (1902-1983)

    Figure 11.2: The five stages of demographic transition.

    d

    b. Stages and Illustration

    Stage One

    This stage dominated most of the pre-industrial societies. In stage one, death

    rates and birth rates were both high, and influenced by natural events, such as

    drought and disease, to produce a relatively constant and young population.

    The majority of deaths were concentrated in the first 5–10 years of life. Family

    planning and contraception were virtually non-existent; therefore, birth rates

    were essentially only limited by the ability of women to bear children. Death

    rates tended to match birth rates and population growth was small.

    Reasons for high birth rate include:

    - Limited birth control

    - high infant mortality rate encourages the birth of more children

    - Children are seen as a future source of income, therefore it would be more

    economically beneficial to have more kids.

    Reasons for high death rate:

    - high incidence of disease

    - poor nutrition and famine

    - poor levels of hygiene

    Stage Two

    This is the early expanding stage of population growth. There is a decline in

    death rate but birth rate remains high leading to an increase in population.

    The changes leading to this stage in Europe were initiated in the Agricultural

    Revolution. In the 20th century, the falls in death rates in developing countries

    tended to be substantially faster.

    The decline in the death rate is due initially to two factors:

    - Improvements in the food supply brought about by higher yields in

    agricultural practices.

    - Significant improvements in public health reduce mortality, particularly

    in childhood.

    - Improvement general personal hygiene, growing scientific knowledge

    through improved education and social status of mothers.

    A consequence of the decline in mortality, there is rapid rise in population

    growth that equalled to a population explosion. The gap between deaths and

    births widens. This growth is a result of a decline in deaths.

    In Stage Two of the demographic transition there is change in the age structure

    of the population. The age structure of the population becomes increasingly

    youthful and more of these children enter the reproductive cycle of their lives

    while maintaining the high fertility rates of their parents.

    Reasons for falling death rate:

    - Improved public health.

    - Better nutrition.

    - Lower child mortality.

    Stage Three

    Stage Three moves the population towards stability through a decline in the

    birth rate. Several factors contribute to this eventual decline, although some of

    them remain speculative:

    - Increasing changes the traditional values placed upon fertility and the

    value of children in society.

    - Due to education and access to family planning, people begin to reassess

    their need for children and their ability to raise them.

    - In both rural and urban areas, the cost of maintaining children raised due

    to the introduction education and the increased need to educate children

    so they can take up a respected position in society.

    - Increasing female literacy and employment lowers the uncritical

    acceptance of childbearing and motherhood as measures of the status of

    women.

    - Improvements in contraceptive technology are now a major factor.

    Fertility decline is caused by changes in values about children and sex as

    by the availability of contraceptives and knowledge of how to use them.

    - In stage three there is a change in the age structure of the population.

    There is;

    1. A reduction in the youth dependency ratio.

    2. An increase population aging.

    3. An increase in the ratio of working age to dependent population.

    Demographic dividend is the change in the population structure where there

    is an increase the working age population and a decline in the dependent

    population.

    Demographic trap is where there is a decline in the death rate that is not

    followed by a corresponding decline in birth rates.

    Stage Four

    This occurs where birth and death rates are both low, leading to a total

    population which is high and stable.

    Death rates are low for a number of reasons, primarily lower rates of diseases

    and higher production of food. The birth rate is low because people have

    more opportunities to choose if they want children; this is made possible by

    improvements in contraception or women gaining more independence and

    work opportunities.

    Because of low birth rate and low death rate, population growth is small and

    fertility continues to fall. There are changes in personal life styles, and more

    women are in the work force, therefore less couples are having kids.

    Stage Five.

    at this stage, death rate slightly exceeds the birth rate, and this causes population

    decline. This stage has only been recently recognised, and there are very few

    countries that are considered in stage 5.

    Reasons for low birth rate include:

    1. A rise in individualism

    2. Greater financial independence of women

    3. Lack of resources for future generations

    11.5.2.3. Limitations of demographic transition theory in developing

    countries

    - Developing countries differ in many aspects from western nations as they

    moved through the demographic transitions.

    - Population growth is higher now days in many countries than before.

    - Mortality rate declines have been much more rapid.

    - Fertility levels are much higher.

    - Migration does not serve as a safety value

    11.5.3. Theory optimum population

    ACTIVITY 11.7

    Study the picture above, comparing the number of hands fetching from

    a single tap.

    s

    1. Interpret such a situation and explain the effect such a situation

    could have on the economy.

    2. What is the name given to a situation where population growth

    matches with available resources?

    3. Illustrate the situation mentioned in question 2 above?

    4. What are the effects for reducing population in Rwanda?

    11.5.3.1: Theory of optimum population:

    Optimum population This is the population which provides enough labour to

    optimally utilize the available resources to give maximum average product i.e

    population is equal to resources and average product is at its maximum.

    Optimum population yields the highest quality of life. Each person has access

    to adequate food supply, water, energy, quality air, adequate medical care,

    recreational facilities etc.

    Given a certain amount of resources, the state of technical knowledge and a

    certain stock of capital, there is a definite size of the population at which the

    real incomes per capita is the highest

    s

    In the figure 11.3 above, before point P0, the population is still low compared

    to the resources available. At point p0 there is optimum population where the

    population matches the available resources and after that point the population

    exceeds the available resources and utilisation of resources.

    11.5.3.2. Under population.

    Under population is a situation whereby available population is so small that it

    cannot put the available resources to full utilization i.e resources are greater

    than population. Average product increase with any increase in population. It

    is a situation whereby the size of the population is small in relation to available

    resources of the country. It is situation where the size of the population is below

    the equilibrium.

    i. Positive effects of under population

    - There is no congestion in the country. The country’s population has

    enough space to utilise and enjoy.

    - The rate of employment of the population is high. The population is low

    and has more resources work on.

    - The available population has an increased social and infrastructural

    access i.e there is a high per capita in terms of social and infrastructural

    facilities.

    ii. Negative effects of under population:

    - Underutilisation of resources. There is less labour to exploit the available

    resources. Some resources especially land remains idle.

    - Lack of innovativeness and dynamism in the economy. There is no

    competition in the economy since the supply of resources is more than

    enough. The population feels satisfied with the existing conditions.

    - There is low aggregate demand. The population is so low that it cannot

    stimulate an increase in aggregate demand. This has an effect of keeping

    production very low.

    - There is a high average contribution per person for establishing

    certain ventures that are needed by the public. Because the population is

    small, the cost per head for establishing public utilities is high.

    - It slows economic progress. Production is low and this does not

    stimulate progress in the economy.

    - Low tax revenue. Economic activity also remains low. This is because

    there is no aggregate demand to stimulate production. The tax base

    remains low and this keeps tax revenue very low.

    - Excess capacity in production. Resource utilization operates below full

    capacity. This is because aggregate demand is low.

    11.5.3.3. Over population.

    Overpopulation is a situation where the available resources are not enough

    to sustain the population i.e population is greater than the resources. Average

    product reduces as population increases.

    Over population may be a result of,

    - Rapid increase in birth rate. This increases the total population. This may

    be due to ignorance about family planning, early marriages etc.

    - Rapid reduction in death rates. This may be due to improvement in

    medical care and public health.

    - Skewed distribution of arable lands. This created regional imbalances in

    access to land as a resource, which breeds over population in some areas.

    - Culture (polygamy). Marrying many wives goes in hand with producing

    many children. In situations where children are valued as a source of

    security against any eventualities, couples produce very many children.

    - Immigration i.e people from other countries settling into the country.

    i. Merits of over population.

    - High supply of labour. There is enough population to supply the necessary

    labour force that is essential for production to expand.

    - Large market. The large population provides a ready market for firms.

    Ready markets encourage the expansion of the scale of production in

    different industries. This increases the country’s GDP and tax base.

    - Increased pressure for development which created innovative spirit.

    There is high competition for commodities, utilities, space, and social

    services. This makes everybody competitive and innovative which makes

    the economy dynamic.

    ii. Demerits of overpopulation

    - High dependence ratios. The individuals who do not have any resources

    depend on others. The country also depends mostly on donor funding.

    This dependence syndrome limits the scale of personal and public savings

    and investments. This impacts on the growth of the economy at large.

    - Increased government expenditure. The government has to increase

    spending on social services to carter for high population. Spending on

    crime prevention, law and order, education, health and guarding against a

    number of social costs multiplies.

    -- Congestion. Because of very many people, there is a likelihood of

    congestion. This breeds poor and unhygienic living conditions.

    -- Food shortages. The population exceeds supply of food. This is because

    the resources that would be used to produce food are over exhausted by

    the excess population.

    -- Low standards of living. Food shortages, overcrowding and social

    tensions as well as unemployment imply a poor standard of living.

    -- Social tension and conflicts. Competition for land, food and social

    services results into conflicts quarrels and rifts. This undermines the

    social cohesion of the society.

    -- Over utilization of resources. The available population will be strained.

    The y will be over exhausted. This affects all efforts towards sustainable

    development.

    -- Inflationary tendencies. Because of low production that is strained by

    limited resources, aggregate supply remains low. Yet due to a high number

    of consumers, and government spending on non-productive ventures,

    aggregate demand increases. This brings inflationary conditions in the

    economy.

    -- Unemployment. High numbers of people will be idle. This is because

    they lack resources to use to create more employment opportunities.

    -- Land fragmentation. Shortage of land for both settlement and agriculture

    increases. Competition sets in all of which results into fragmentation. This

    also brings further decline in agricultural output.

    -- Environmental degradation. Competition for resources may result into

    over exhaustion and degradation of the environment.

    APPLICATION ACTIVITY 11.3

    1. Write proposals to the Ministry of Health on how best positive checks and negative checks as suggested by Malthus can be adopted in Rwanda as a long term solution for population growth and food shortage.

    2. Suggest the factors that make population increase geometrically and food increase arithmetically.

    END UNIT ASSESSMENT

    1. Rwanda has an estimated 12.63 million people in 2019.The growth rate is 2.64%, its density of 479.42/km2 at a fixed area

    26,338/km2. http://worldpopulationreview.com/countries/rwanda-population/

    a. Is it a benefit to have this population growth rate or a threat to the future of Rwanda?

    b. Explain the impact this growth rate will have on the general welfare of Rwandans

    2. Rwanda believes that early pregnancies among the youth is a major cause of high population growth rate and poverty. Discuss.

    3. To what extent has Malthusian population theory failed to solve manpower problems in developing countries like Rwanda?

    UNIT 10 PUBLIC FINANCE 2UNIT 12 LABOUR AND WAGES